***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.05.2019.-16.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 25.3 24.7 24.3 -0.2 45.1 46.5 24.0 24.9 25.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 25.4 24.7 24.2 -0.4 42.9 44.4 24.2 25.0 25.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 25.3 24.9 24.6 -0.1 47.1 47.8 24.2 25.0 25.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 18.1 18.1 22.3 0.3 56.6 54.8 17.1 17.9 18.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 25.7 25.4 22.9 0.0 50.6 50.1 24.6 25.4 26.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 24.1 24.3 20.9 0.5 60.7 56.8 23.0 23.8 24.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 25.0 24.4 24.2 -0.4 42.9 44.4 23.9 24.7 25.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 13.6 13.2 21.0 0.0 49.5 48.6 12.5 13.2 14.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 25.0 24.7 23.5 0.1 51.3 50.6 23.9 24.7 25.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 24.9 24.6 21.9 0.0 50.3 49.6 23.8 24.6 25.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 25.4 25.3 23.1 0.2 54.6 52.7 24.3 25.1 25.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 24.3 24.2 22.3 0.3 56.6 53.5 23.3 24.0 24.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 25.5 25.5 22.3 0.4 58.3 54.9 24.4 25.1 25.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 25.1 24.4 22.6 -0.5 40.6 42.5 24.1 24.8 25.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 26.5 26.4 24.3 0.7 65.3 61.7 25.0 25.7 26.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 26.0 26.1 22.7 0.5 59.7 56.3 24.9 25.7 26.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 24.8 24.1 24.0 -0.4 43.2 44.5 23.6 24.5 25.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 24.4 23.9 21.0 -0.2 45.2 46.0 23.4 24.1 24.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 24.9 24.3 24.3 -0.3 44.4 45.6 23.8 24.6 25.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 18.5 19.1 18.4 -0.4 41.1 42.7 18.7 19.5 20.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 25.3 24.8 24.2 -0.1 47.3 47.8 24.1 24.9 25.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 25.3 24.5 23.8 -0.5 41.3 43.0 24.1 24.9 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 25.3 24.8 24.4 -0.1 47.1 47.8 24.1 24.9 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 24.7 24.1 22.8 -0.3 44.5 45.6 23.6 24.4 25.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 25.4 24.9 23.0 -0.2 45.6 46.7 24.3 25.1 25.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 24.9 25.2 21.9 0.7 65.0 59.3 23.9 24.6 25.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 25.0 24.5 23.6 -0.3 44.3 45.9 24.0 24.8 25.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 26.0 26.3 23.2 0.6 63.1 59.5 25.0 25.7 26.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 18.3 18.9 20.0 -0.4 41.9 43.5 18.5 19.3 20.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 25.2 24.6 24.3 -0.3 43.7 45.1 24.0 24.9 25.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------