***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.05.2019.-26.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 23.4 32.2 33.5 170.9 82.1 75.2 5.6 11.0 18.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 15.8 18.5 24.4 144.8 76.4 68.2 4.7 8.5 13.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 45 55 100 17.0 19.0 24.3 129.4 72.3 65.9 6.1 10.4 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 43 57 100 25.2 27.4 25.5 128.3 71.7 63.6 9.6 15.8 23.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 18.7 27.4 24.8 127.4 71.8 64.2 9.1 15.4 23.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 13.4 16.1 22.1 104.8 62.4 55.3 6.2 11.0 17.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 15.6 22.0 29.2 171.6 82.1 72.7 4.1 7.7 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 22.7 26.4 25.3 103.2 62.7 56.3 13.0 19.9 28.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 12.5 19.3 25.6 125.6 71.2 63.7 5.5 10.1 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 17.5 20.8 26.3 106.2 63.8 56.7 9.8 15.1 21.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 12.9 16.0 21.7 107.0 64.9 57.5 7.0 11.1 16.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 14.0 18.0 21.4 110.1 65.8 58.5 6.6 11.6 18.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 11.7 14.4 20.0 99.1 62.3 56.0 5.3 9.8 16.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 13.3 15.4 23.3 97.4 60.8 56.3 6.6 11.4 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 13.3 19.1 21.1 115.7 68.6 59.8 6.1 11.0 17.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 12.5 16.6 20.5 111.8 66.7 59.2 6.1 10.5 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 14.1 17.6 25.1 155.5 79.1 68.0 4.2 7.5 12.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 13.2 15.6 25.7 106.7 63.7 57.6 6.6 10.9 16.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 45 55 100 17.8 19.2 21.6 124.7 70.9 63.7 5.3 9.9 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 14.6 14.4 22.9 92.0 57.0 52.1 8.0 12.3 17.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 17.5 19.6 25.7 131.0 72.9 65.3 5.7 10.1 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 10.6 15.7 21.0 127.6 71.8 61.6 4.9 8.6 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 9.6 13.0 19.9 109.2 65.6 59.3 4.1 7.9 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 12.7 17.5 23.6 111.0 65.9 60.4 6.0 10.8 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 20.3 28.5 35.2 175.5 83.2 76.4 5.0 9.6 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 12.8 17.2 21.8 116.5 68.5 61.4 6.7 10.9 16.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 21 79 100 23.0 33.8 37.6 187.4 85.4 78.5 5.9 11.0 18.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 13.3 17.7 22.2 114.7 68.0 59.1 7.0 11.3 16.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 20.6 22.5 24.0 99.7 60.4 55.3 10.1 17.0 25.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 16.9 20.9 26.0 147.0 76.8 68.8 4.8 9.0 14.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------