***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.06.2019.-16.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 6.1 14.7 14.2 84.0 57.5 46.4 5.7 11.3 19.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 9.7 21.4 14.0 97.8 62.8 48.3 10.1 15.9 23.1 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 9.3 23.2 14.1 86.7 58.7 47.2 8.5 17.2 29.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 21.2 20.6 14.3 84.6 58.2 47.2 9.1 16.1 25.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 15.5 16.0 14.5 89.8 59.8 47.9 6.2 11.7 19.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 15.6 16.7 19.4 97.4 61.9 49.3 6.2 11.6 19.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 7.4 16.9 13.2 91.4 60.4 45.7 7.4 12.6 19.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 20.8 22.0 17.8 94.0 60.6 50.5 10.3 16.9 24.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 17.1 17.2 15.3 90.0 59.5 47.9 6.5 12.5 21.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 21.2 20.9 17.9 88.9 58.4 48.4 8.5 16.0 26.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 15.2 15.7 13.5 89.6 59.9 47.4 6.7 11.9 18.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 14.1 15.4 14.6 95.7 62.0 49.6 6.0 10.7 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 5.4 14.3 15.9 94.6 62.0 46.5 5.1 9.7 16.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 20.4 20.8 19.5 92.0 59.6 48.7 9.1 15.8 24.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 10.4 10.4 12.2 82.9 58.5 45.8 3.7 7.7 13.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 5.3 12.5 15.0 94.3 61.8 47.1 5.0 8.9 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 8.1 20.4 13.9 98.9 63.4 47.5 7.9 13.9 21.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 19.2 20.1 21.0 96.0 60.5 50.8 8.5 14.9 23.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 10.1 24.1 14.3 95.9 62.1 48.2 10.3 17.4 26.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 18.3 20.5 21.6 101.2 62.4 52.4 7.2 13.7 23.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 7.8 16.8 14.8 90.8 60.3 48.2 7.2 12.6 19.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 8.9 21.8 15.9 109.3 66.8 49.5 9.0 14.5 21.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 7.9 17.3 13.9 87.2 58.9 46.3 7.3 13.3 21.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 22.8 22.9 17.3 90.8 59.1 49.0 10.6 17.9 27.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 18.6 18.0 15.2 82.7 57.1 46.6 9.3 15.1 22.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 4.4 16.5 14.4 101.5 64.6 45.5 4.1 9.3 17.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 7.5 16.2 15.3 84.3 57.7 46.6 6.6 12.7 21.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 13.1 13.3 14.4 87.2 59.4 47.3 4.9 9.7 16.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 26.4 27.5 21.6 97.3 60.7 51.2 12.3 20.8 31.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 9.0 21.9 13.6 89.6 59.7 47.2 8.8 16.2 26.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------