***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.05.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.05.2019.-16.06.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 92.5 95.0 88.3 124.1 72.3 66.1 55.4 70.7 87.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 83.4 86.4 78.8 126.2 73.2 66.2 59.1 69.7 80.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 88.0 98.1 79.5 113.9 66.5 59.1 64.6 80.5 97.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 90.2 97.1 79.8 108.9 63.2 56.2 63.7 81.4 100.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 75.1 80.9 78.1 110.6 64.3 56.4 57.0 69.2 82.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 72.2 69.0 80.9 96.4 53.9 49.8 53.4 66.0 79.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 78.9 84.1 81.4 129.9 74.8 67.6 45.1 58.7 73.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 107.6 107.3 82.6 99.6 56.5 51.2 88.0 101.7 116.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 71.7 76.8 82.1 111.0 64.6 56.3 57.5 67.4 78.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 82.3 82.8 87.1 102.0 58.1 52.0 61.1 75.6 91.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 67.2 67.0 70.7 100.5 57.4 50.8 53.6 62.7 72.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 66.8 66.2 69.0 99.1 56.7 50.3 49.8 61.2 73.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 66.2 65.0 73.1 97.8 55.9 49.3 50.1 61.0 72.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 97.0 98.0 91.7 102.8 58.8 52.0 76.7 90.6 104.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 62.8 64.6 68.1 102.3 59.0 51.8 42.8 56.4 71.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 59.9 59.6 70.4 99.5 56.9 50.2 43.9 54.8 66.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 90.3 94.4 76.5 126.6 73.1 65.9 46.3 63.6 83.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 82.7 84.4 94.0 104.1 59.5 52.9 65.9 77.5 89.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 95.2 96.1 76.4 118.9 69.2 62.0 65.1 78.8 92.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 79.0 77.9 88.7 99.8 56.0 50.8 62.5 73.8 85.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 68.6 77.9 82.7 115.9 67.6 60.0 50.6 63.1 76.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 89.0 92.1 75.4 121.3 70.5 62.8 53.7 69.3 86.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 69.8 73.7 73.7 108.7 63.1 55.8 55.7 65.6 75.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 89.9 92.9 86.4 106.1 61.2 53.7 71.5 84.0 97.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 88.8 90.4 94.9 123.6 72.2 65.2 54.9 68.7 83.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 63.5 61.6 65.7 97.3 55.7 49.3 45.6 57.3 70.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 89.8 94.4 96.9 128.2 74.7 68.1 55.9 69.5 84.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 61.8 62.2 72.3 101.1 58.1 51.5 47.2 57.2 67.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 105.9 106.4 93.2 102.5 58.2 51.7 84.6 99.2 114.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 89.9 92.9 80.3 123.6 71.7 64.8 60.8 73.7 87.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------