***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2012.-17.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 13.7 15.1 0.0 50.2 49.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 13.4 13.5 15.4 0.3 57.7 55.5 12.6 13.2 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 15.0 14.8 14.9 0.0 49.8 49.1 14.3 14.9 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 10.0 9.6 12.9 -0.2 44.5 45.0 9.2 9.8 10.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 11.9 11.6 12.8 -0.2 45.2 45.6 11.3 11.8 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 10.8 10.4 10.8 -0.2 42.6 43.8 10.2 10.6 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 13.5 13.5 15.4 0.3 56.6 54.8 12.8 13.3 13.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 5.6 5.3 10.8 -0.1 46.5 46.7 4.9 5.4 5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 12.9 12.7 13.2 -0.1 47.8 47.5 12.3 12.7 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 12.8 12.6 11.6 -0.1 48.0 47.8 12.1 12.6 13.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 12.6 12.3 12.2 -0.2 44.9 45.5 12.0 12.4 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.8 10.4 11.6 -0.2 43.6 44.5 10.1 10.6 11.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 12.2 11.8 11.2 -0.3 41.6 43.0 11.6 12.0 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 13.5 13.3 13.2 -0.1 48.5 48.0 12.8 13.3 13.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 13.8 13.6 13.8 -0.1 47.0 46.8 13.2 13.7 14.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 13.0 12.6 11.9 -0.2 42.3 43.5 12.3 12.8 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 13.7 13.9 15.3 0.5 63.0 59.6 13.0 13.5 14.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 11.5 11.2 11.0 0.0 48.8 48.3 10.7 11.3 11.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 13.4 13.4 15.3 0.2 56.0 54.0 12.7 13.2 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 7.3 7.1 9.0 -0.1 48.1 47.9 6.7 7.2 7.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 12.9 12.7 14.2 -0.1 46.9 46.8 12.3 12.7 13.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 12.9 13.1 15.2 0.5 62.4 58.7 12.3 12.8 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 13.0 12.9 14.8 0.1 52.5 51.1 12.3 12.9 13.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 13.0 12.7 12.9 0.0 48.7 48.1 12.2 12.8 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 13.1 12.9 13.7 0.0 48.7 48.3 12.3 12.9 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 11.6 11.2 11.2 -0.3 40.8 42.2 11.0 11.4 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 13.2 13.0 14.4 0.0 50.2 49.6 12.5 13.0 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 11.9 11.6 13.2 -0.2 43.4 44.1 11.3 11.7 12.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 9.8 9.5 10.2 -0.1 48.4 48.1 9.1 9.6 10.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 13.6 13.6 15.4 0.2 54.3 52.9 12.9 13.4 13.9 30 Zrenjanin ------------------------------ ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju ------------------------------ ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 na severu i u centralnoj, na jugu 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------