***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2012.-27.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 89 11 100 9999.0 13.4 14.3 0.6 61.3 60.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 13.2 13.2 14.4 1.0 68.3 66.5 11.1 12.1 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 14.0 14.3 14.0 0.5 59.2 58.5 12.8 13.8 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 88 12 100 8.8 8.6 11.6 0.0 51.0 50.9 7.4 8.6 9.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 88 12 100 11.0 10.9 11.8 0.1 51.2 50.9 9.9 10.8 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 9.8 9.1 9.2 -0.4 41.1 42.1 8.7 9.5 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 13.1 13.1 14.5 1.0 67.4 65.7 11.2 12.1 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 4.7 4.4 9.3 0.0 50.8 50.4 3.4 4.4 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 11.8 11.8 12.3 0.2 54.5 53.9 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 11.7 11.7 10.5 0.2 53.9 53.2 10.6 11.5 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 11.7 11.4 11.0 0.0 49.4 49.3 10.6 11.4 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 9.8 9.3 9.9 -0.1 46.7 46.9 8.6 9.5 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 11.1 10.3 9.8 -0.4 40.0 41.2 10.0 10.8 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 12.5 12.7 12.3 0.4 58.2 57.6 11.3 12.2 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 12.8 12.9 13.2 0.3 56.2 55.6 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 12.0 11.4 10.6 -0.2 44.4 45.0 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 13.5 13.8 14.4 1.3 72.8 70.2 11.4 12.4 13.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 10.3 10.4 9.7 0.2 54.8 54.0 9.1 10.1 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 13.1 13.0 14.2 0.8 66.3 64.8 11.2 12.1 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 6.5 6.3 7.3 0.0 51.1 50.6 5.3 6.3 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 89 11 100 11.8 11.8 13.4 0.2 53.9 53.6 10.7 11.6 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 12.6 12.7 14.2 1.1 70.5 68.5 10.6 11.6 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 12.0 12.4 13.8 0.6 62.8 61.8 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 11.9 12.0 11.9 0.3 56.6 56.0 10.7 11.7 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 89 11 100 12.1 12.3 13.1 0.3 56.6 56.0 10.9 11.9 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 10.6 9.6 9.1 -0.6 36.6 37.7 9.4 10.3 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 88 12 100 12.3 12.7 13.7 0.6 61.0 60.1 11.1 12.1 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 10.8 10.6 12.1 0.0 49.9 49.9 9.8 10.6 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 8.8 8.7 8.8 0.1 53.2 52.4 7.5 8.5 9.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 44 56 100 13.2 13.1 14.5 0.8 64.8 63.5 11.3 12.3 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------