***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.06.2012.-10.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9999.0 14.0 15.3 -0.7 37.4 39.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 12.6 13.4 15.6 -0.5 41.3 42.0 12.9 13.9 14.9 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 14.1 14.7 15.1 -0.7 37.1 39.1 14.4 15.4 16.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 9.0 9.6 13.2 -0.8 34.6 37.6 9.5 10.6 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 11.3 11.6 13.0 -0.8 34.7 37.8 11.5 12.2 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 10.3 10.6 11.2 -0.7 36.2 39.2 10.5 11.2 11.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 12.9 13.6 15.6 -0.5 40.8 41.7 13.2 14.0 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 4.7 5.1 11.2 -0.7 35.3 38.6 5.0 5.9 6.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 12.2 12.6 13.3 -0.7 36.3 38.8 12.5 13.2 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 12.2 12.5 11.9 -0.7 36.2 39.1 12.4 13.1 13.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 12.0 12.3 12.4 -0.8 34.7 38.1 12.2 12.9 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 10.3 10.5 12.0 -0.8 34.3 37.9 10.5 11.2 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 11.5 11.9 11.6 -0.7 35.6 38.8 11.8 12.6 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 12.9 13.3 13.3 -0.8 35.9 38.2 13.1 13.9 14.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 13.0 13.5 13.8 -0.6 37.1 39.1 13.3 14.1 14.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 12.3 12.7 12.2 -0.8 34.6 38.1 12.6 13.3 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 13.2 14.0 15.5 -0.3 44.4 44.3 13.4 14.2 15.1 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 10.9 11.3 11.2 -0.7 36.7 39.3 11.1 12.0 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 12.8 13.4 15.4 -0.6 40.4 41.3 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 6.8 7.1 9.4 -0.7 36.5 39.2 7.0 7.6 8.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 12.3 12.7 14.4 -0.8 36.0 38.5 12.5 13.3 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 12.5 13.2 15.4 -0.3 44.4 44.2 12.6 13.5 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 12.5 12.9 15.0 -0.7 38.5 39.9 12.7 13.5 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 12.2 12.7 13.1 -0.7 36.5 38.9 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 12.5 13.0 13.9 -0.6 37.6 39.5 12.8 13.6 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 11.1 11.5 11.7 -0.6 36.0 39.0 11.4 12.0 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 12.4 13.0 14.6 -0.6 38.2 39.9 12.7 13.6 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 11.3 11.6 13.4 -0.8 34.5 37.5 11.6 12.3 12.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 9.0 9.5 10.5 -0.7 36.7 39.3 9.3 10.2 11.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 13.0 13.6 15.5 -0.6 39.5 40.8 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------