***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2012.-27.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 23.8 22.1 -1.3 32.1 33.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 24.5 23.5 22.7 -0.8 40.0 41.3 23.0 24.2 25.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 24.7 22.7 22.0 -1.5 31.4 33.0 22.9 24.2 25.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 14.7 14.8 19.5 -1.6 28.2 29.9 15.3 16.7 18.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 22.2 22.3 20.0 -1.7 27.9 29.5 22.8 24.2 25.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 77 23 0 100 20.2 20.3 17.5 -2.0 24.0 25.7 21.1 22.5 23.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 24.1 23.2 22.7 -0.7 41.3 42.5 22.6 23.8 24.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 10.1 10.3 17.9 -1.8 27.5 28.9 10.8 12.2 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 21.8 21.9 20.9 -1.6 29.6 31.2 22.2 23.6 24.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 21.8 21.9 19.0 -1.7 29.0 30.5 22.3 23.6 24.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 21.8 21.9 19.6 -1.8 27.5 29.1 22.4 23.8 25.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 71 29 0 100 20.7 20.8 18.6 -1.9 26.1 27.5 21.4 22.7 23.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 80 20 0 100 21.4 21.8 18.6 -2.0 24.4 26.0 22.5 23.8 25.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 22.5 22.6 20.5 -1.6 30.7 32.3 22.8 24.1 25.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 22.8 23.0 21.5 -1.2 32.0 33.6 23.1 24.4 25.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 22.2 22.4 19.3 -1.9 25.7 27.4 23.0 24.4 25.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 23.9 23.2 22.7 -0.4 44.4 45.4 22.4 23.6 24.7 29 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 21.5 21.6 18.1 -1.7 29.2 30.7 21.9 23.2 24.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 24.1 22.8 22.5 -1.0 36.9 38.4 22.5 23.7 24.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 16.1 16.3 15.7 -1.9 26.0 27.6 16.9 18.4 19.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 22.0 22.2 21.6 -1.7 28.9 30.5 22.5 23.9 25.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 24.4 23.5 22.4 -0.6 41.4 42.6 22.9 24.1 25.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 24.7 22.9 22.0 -1.3 32.8 34.4 23.0 24.2 25.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 21.9 22.1 20.2 -1.6 30.2 31.7 22.3 23.6 24.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 22.2 22.3 20.6 -1.5 29.2 31.1 22.6 23.9 25.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 79 21 0 100 20.9 21.0 17.7 -2.2 22.3 23.9 21.9 23.2 24.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 24.2 22.3 21.5 -1.3 32.2 34.0 22.4 23.7 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 22.4 22.6 20.3 -1.6 28.2 29.8 23.0 24.4 25.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 16.5 16.6 17.2 -1.7 28.7 30.3 17.0 18.3 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 24.4 23.0 22.6 -1.0 37.1 38.6 22.7 24.0 25.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------