***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.06.2012.-10.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 25.4 25.1 -1.0 36.7 39.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 26.4 24.9 25.5 -0.7 41.4 42.7 24.2 25.7 27.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 26.4 24.7 25.3 -0.9 38.7 40.6 24.2 25.8 27.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 16.7 17.5 23.4 -0.9 37.8 39.5 17.1 18.5 19.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 24.4 25.2 23.4 -0.9 38.6 40.2 24.8 26.2 27.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 23.2 24.1 21.1 -0.7 40.4 41.5 23.5 24.8 26.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 26.0 24.5 25.3 -0.8 40.1 41.7 23.8 25.3 26.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 12.4 13.3 21.7 -0.7 41.2 42.2 12.7 13.9 15.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 23.7 24.5 23.8 -0.8 39.2 40.8 24.0 25.5 26.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 23.6 24.6 22.5 -0.7 40.7 41.9 23.9 25.4 26.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 24.4 25.2 23.0 -0.8 39.8 41.1 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 23.2 24.1 22.5 -0.7 40.2 41.3 23.5 24.8 26.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 24.4 25.3 21.9 -0.8 39.5 40.7 24.8 26.1 27.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 26.2 24.7 23.6 -0.8 40.9 42.5 23.9 25.5 27.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 24.9 25.6 23.8 -0.8 39.1 40.3 25.1 26.4 27.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 24.9 25.8 22.5 -0.8 39.2 40.5 25.4 26.6 27.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 25.9 24.7 25.4 -0.5 43.8 44.7 23.7 25.2 26.7 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 23.1 24.1 21.7 -0.7 41.6 42.7 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 25.9 24.5 25.5 -0.7 41.5 42.8 23.7 25.2 26.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 18.6 19.7 19.5 -0.6 42.4 43.3 18.9 20.3 21.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 23.7 24.6 24.6 -0.9 37.8 39.7 24.1 25.7 27.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 26.3 25.2 25.4 -0.4 44.5 45.3 24.1 25.7 27.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 26.2 24.8 25.2 -0.7 41.2 42.6 24.0 25.6 27.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 25.7 24.2 23.5 -0.8 40.5 42.0 23.6 25.1 26.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 24.0 24.6 23.6 -1.0 36.3 38.6 24.3 25.8 27.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 24.2 25.0 21.8 -0.7 40.0 41.2 24.5 25.7 26.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 23.8 24.4 24.2 -1.0 36.2 38.7 24.1 25.5 26.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 24.8 25.6 23.6 -0.9 38.5 39.9 25.2 26.4 27.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 18.2 19.3 20.7 -0.6 42.2 43.2 18.5 20.0 21.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 26.2 24.7 25.5 -0.8 39.8 41.5 24.1 25.6 27.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------