***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.06.2012.-17.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 9999.0 26.8 26.4 0.6 56.8 55.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 26.6 27.0 26.9 1.1 62.0 59.5 24.7 26.1 27.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 26.5 26.8 26.6 0.8 58.2 56.8 24.6 26.1 27.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 19.9 19.9 24.6 0.4 54.5 54.0 18.2 19.5 20.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 27.1 27.1 24.6 0.5 55.9 55.0 25.2 26.6 28.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 25.7 25.9 22.5 0.7 58.3 57.0 23.8 25.2 26.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 26.2 26.7 26.7 1.0 61.4 59.0 24.4 25.8 27.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 15.2 15.5 23.0 0.7 58.5 57.0 13.3 14.8 16.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 26.4 26.6 25.0 0.6 56.9 55.8 24.5 26.0 27.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 26.3 26.5 23.7 0.7 58.2 56.8 24.5 25.9 27.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 26.8 26.9 24.2 0.6 56.9 55.7 24.9 26.4 27.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 25.8 26.1 23.9 0.7 57.8 56.4 24.1 25.5 26.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 26.9 27.2 23.3 0.7 57.8 56.5 25.0 26.5 27.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 26.1 26.5 24.9 0.9 59.9 58.0 24.3 25.7 27.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 27.8 27.7 25.1 0.4 54.8 54.3 26.2 27.4 28.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 27.6 27.7 23.9 0.6 56.6 55.6 25.7 27.1 28.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 25.9 26.6 26.8 1.3 64.0 60.9 24.0 25.4 26.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 25.7 26.1 22.9 0.9 59.7 58.1 23.8 25.3 26.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 26.0 26.5 26.9 1.1 61.7 59.3 24.2 25.5 26.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 21.3 21.9 20.8 0.9 60.7 58.9 19.3 20.9 22.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 26.6 26.7 25.8 0.6 56.1 55.2 24.7 26.2 27.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 26.4 27.0 26.7 1.3 63.8 60.8 24.5 25.9 27.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 26.4 26.8 26.6 1.0 60.9 58.7 24.5 25.9 27.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 25.9 26.2 24.8 0.8 59.2 57.5 24.0 25.4 26.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 26.9 26.8 24.7 0.4 55.1 54.5 25.1 26.4 27.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 26.6 26.8 23.4 0.7 58.6 57.1 24.7 26.1 27.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 26.3 26.4 25.4 0.6 56.4 55.5 24.6 25.9 27.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 27.8 27.8 24.8 0.4 54.6 54.0 26.1 27.4 28.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 21.0 21.5 21.9 0.9 60.5 58.8 19.0 20.6 22.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 26.3 26.6 26.8 1.0 60.4 58.4 24.4 25.8 27.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------