***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2012.-17.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 9999.0 85.1 72.6 121.2 70.4 63.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 74.5 80.7 69.0 112.8 65.7 59.5 60.8 70.5 80.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 104.0 105.5 73.0 120.8 70.4 62.6 64.8 81.7 99.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 90.5 110.3 89.6 124.3 72.1 62.9 65.3 82.6 101.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 73.5 85.7 86.8 122.4 71.2 62.3 56.9 68.7 81.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 72.9 84.7 107.7 116.1 68.2 60.2 55.1 68.2 82.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 64.3 74.6 70.4 114.0 66.4 60.8 45.1 58.7 73.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 109.3 121.1 87.3 117.0 68.2 61.8 88.7 103.4 118.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 74.0 84.8 84.3 121.2 70.5 62.2 59.3 69.8 81.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 85.9 98.3 93.0 118.8 69.4 62.3 67.1 80.6 94.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 68.4 76.6 79.2 118.9 69.2 61.5 55.4 64.7 74.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 65.3 75.4 73.5 118.1 68.7 61.7 49.0 60.7 73.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 67.0 74.7 88.3 113.2 66.2 59.0 52.1 63.0 74.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 101.1 112.3 86.7 114.6 67.0 60.7 78.4 94.2 111.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 63.7 80.5 83.1 126.1 72.5 63.1 42.5 56.7 72.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 59.8 68.9 85.1 117.3 68.5 60.6 45.1 55.5 66.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 70.2 80.0 63.7 110.1 64.2 58.6 47.0 63.3 82.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 94.5 94.9 100.4 116.5 68.4 62.0 66.5 79.2 92.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 85.2 94.5 69.6 114.4 66.7 60.0 64.9 78.8 93.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 80.4 87.2 102.7 110.6 64.4 59.5 63.0 75.5 88.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 80.1 82.8 75.3 122.2 70.9 62.5 51.5 64.2 77.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 76.9 84.6 62.5 110.2 64.2 58.3 54.2 69.8 87.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 70.7 78.3 73.2 116.0 67.7 61.0 55.9 66.3 76.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 105.7 106.1 88.1 117.7 69.0 61.9 73.8 88.1 102.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 90.7 93.8 90.8 123.4 72.0 64.5 55.9 70.7 86.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 63.5 72.1 78.7 113.2 66.1 58.5 46.4 58.5 71.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 89.1 91.5 84.3 121.2 70.7 64.0 56.2 70.6 86.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 63.0 74.1 86.6 124.3 71.8 62.2 48.6 58.9 69.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 105.5 115.6 99.3 113.5 66.4 60.5 83.8 99.3 115.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 79.8 89.4 71.2 115.8 67.5 60.8 61.2 74.0 88.1 30 Zrenjanin ------------------------------ ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju ------------------------------ ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 na severu 0.6-0.7, na jugu 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------