***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2012.-27.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 9999.0 18.9 31.2 168.7 81.8 75.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 14.2 18.4 26.2 159.3 80.1 72.3 4.8 8.1 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 19.1 26.4 31.9 177.3 83.7 75.5 5.9 10.1 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 25.0 31.9 37.5 167.5 81.7 74.7 8.4 13.9 20.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 23.8 31.2 37.3 175.6 83.4 76.3 8.5 13.4 19.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 18.1 22.8 39.0 154.3 79.1 72.2 4.2 8.2 14.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 14.9 19.7 26.2 158.4 79.8 73.1 4.1 7.7 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 31.3 36.7 34.7 153.5 78.7 72.4 11.4 18.1 26.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 19.6 27.8 36.2 178.0 83.8 76.1 5.4 9.8 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 24.3 31.5 39.0 170.6 82.6 75.1 8.3 13.6 20.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 17.6 22.4 33.4 166.5 81.5 74.2 5.7 9.5 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 19.4 23.9 31.1 155.7 79.2 73.2 5.2 9.8 15.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 17.3 21.0 35.4 151.4 78.5 72.7 4.7 8.8 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 19.5 27.5 36.7 175.7 83.7 73.8 7.0 11.3 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 19.1 25.9 35.3 161.7 80.4 70.9 5.6 10.3 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 16.8 20.9 34.6 158.3 79.9 73.4 4.8 8.5 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 13.2 15.8 22.8 148.6 77.6 69.8 3.9 7.1 11.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 21.4 28.2 41.6 168.0 82.3 74.6 6.3 11.1 17.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 18.5 24.8 28.0 166.3 81.5 73.3 5.7 10.1 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 19.3 21.1 36.8 141.7 75.8 70.4 7.0 11.2 16.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 17.6 24.7 33.4 179.0 83.8 76.3 4.8 8.7 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 16.0 19.7 23.9 157.1 79.5 71.8 4.2 7.9 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 14.1 20.2 31.5 176.5 83.4 74.9 4.1 7.3 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 18.9 27.7 37.9 175.9 83.7 74.5 5.2 9.6 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 20.7 28.5 37.9 175.4 83.7 77.8 5.3 9.9 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 19.2 21.6 32.7 143.8 76.4 71.5 6.1 10.4 16.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 21 79 100 20.4 27.2 34.9 170.5 82.6 76.8 5.4 9.8 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 17.3 22.8 35.8 160.7 80.2 71.8 5.4 9.6 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 27.7 32.9 39.4 156.2 79.5 72.9 9.9 15.9 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 16.4 23.0 28.5 167.3 81.8 74.2 4.6 8.5 13.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------