***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.05.2012.-03.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 9999.0 16.6 15.0 105.1 66.2 54.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 14.7 18.9 15.3 102.0 64.8 52.4 5.9 11.5 19.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 16.7 20.1 14.5 100.7 64.6 52.6 7.5 13.2 20.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 18.7 25.7 20.1 113.4 68.9 56.9 8.7 15.1 23.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 14.5 18.1 18.5 105.9 66.6 53.6 6.4 11.3 17.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 17.5 22.7 28.6 120.5 70.4 59.4 10.8 15.4 20.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 12.2 16.8 16.2 106.5 66.4 54.2 4.6 9.4 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 27.9 38.5 21.3 126.1 72.1 59.3 15.7 23.9 33.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 12.6 15.6 18.0 102.2 65.6 54.0 5.3 9.7 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 16.7 21.3 20.9 110.8 67.7 55.9 8.4 13.7 20.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 13.9 18.4 18.1 113.2 68.8 55.5 6.5 11.1 17.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 15.9 21.7 17.6 124.7 71.9 56.9 8.7 13.3 19.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 15.6 20.2 22.6 117.4 69.5 56.9 8.8 13.3 18.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 23.7 26.5 17.7 96.3 62.6 51.5 9.2 17.8 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 11.9 18.7 19.9 118.8 71.0 59.0 4.5 9.2 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 14.1 18.9 20.6 115.4 69.2 56.6 6.7 11.4 17.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 14.4 17.5 14.6 101.5 64.4 50.0 6.0 11.2 18.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 19.9 24.5 22.5 108.9 66.6 55.6 9.8 16.1 24.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 13.3 16.6 14.7 99.3 63.9 51.9 4.5 9.8 17.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 18.0 24.6 26.5 123.8 71.0 60.5 9.7 15.1 21.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 15.2 17.9 15.2 99.4 65.0 52.5 7.3 12.1 18.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 18.0 19.4 13.2 93.8 61.3 47.4 6.0 12.5 22.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 15.1 17.6 14.8 96.8 63.0 52.0 6.9 12.1 19.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 20.3 23.5 18.3 101.5 64.5 53.4 10.2 16.4 24.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 14.5 18.5 19.4 104.9 65.8 55.6 6.2 11.4 18.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 11.9 18.1 20.6 124.1 71.7 56.4 4.6 9.0 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 13.3 16.8 17.8 104.6 65.6 55.4 6.5 11.1 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 13.1 18.2 20.3 118.6 70.6 58.4 6.8 11.0 16.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 23.8 29.8 23.2 112.5 67.5 56.6 12.1 19.5 28.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 14.0 17.7 15.1 101.2 64.7 52.9 6.3 11.4 18.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------