***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.06.2012.-10.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 25.0 15.4 116.3 68.7 50.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 19.8 22.6 15.4 100.0 63.4 51.4 9.1 15.6 24.3 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 9.0 25.4 15.2 108.7 65.7 49.1 8.4 15.7 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 9.0 25.4 18.6 114.2 67.6 48.6 8.5 15.2 24.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 7.3 20.6 17.8 109.2 65.8 48.3 7.2 13.0 20.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 17.5 18.5 23.2 98.1 61.1 50.9 8.4 13.9 21.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 16.8 19.7 15.6 101.6 64.6 53.8 8.6 13.7 20.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 26.2 28.3 17.9 97.5 61.7 51.4 13.4 21.3 31.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 9.0 21.5 16.9 106.9 65.3 49.0 9.6 15.0 21.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 8.4 19.5 18.7 100.8 63.0 50.7 8.1 13.8 21.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 7.5 19.0 15.8 101.5 63.7 49.3 6.8 12.6 20.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 13.6 15.0 14.6 97.9 62.1 50.1 5.0 9.9 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 15.4 16.0 18.3 94.2 60.2 49.6 6.3 11.7 19.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 25.2 28.1 18.6 98.3 62.1 50.7 13.0 20.9 30.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 5.5 18.0 16.1 112.0 67.5 48.1 4.8 9.8 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 5.4 15.0 17.5 101.4 63.2 49.6 4.7 9.5 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 22.3 26.4 14.8 100.2 64.3 52.7 8.4 16.3 27.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 20.5 22.3 20.9 101.6 62.9 52.4 11.7 17.1 23.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 10.4 24.6 15.1 99.1 62.6 49.6 9.5 17.1 27.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 16.3 17.2 23.0 97.5 60.6 52.8 6.9 12.4 20.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 6.0 20.9 15.2 111.9 67.1 47.9 6.0 11.9 20.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 9.3 22.0 14.4 97.3 62.6 50.5 8.9 15.5 24.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 17.3 18.2 15.1 96.6 61.4 48.1 7.5 13.2 20.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 12.8 25.7 18.2 101.6 63.0 50.8 12.5 19.2 27.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 8.5 25.7 19.1 115.6 68.0 51.1 8.3 15.0 24.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 5.2 12.3 15.4 88.2 58.0 47.4 5.0 9.5 15.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 19.8 25.8 17.9 114.4 68.0 52.8 7.4 14.4 24.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 5.7 16.2 17.9 113.7 67.7 48.3 5.2 9.5 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 25.3 27.9 21.2 101.0 62.6 52.8 13.1 20.8 30.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 21.6 24.5 15.5 103.7 64.3 50.7 11.3 17.7 25.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------