***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.05.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.06.2012.-17.06.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 21.1 11.1 79.2 57.6 48.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 8.2 17.4 12.1 84.5 58.1 47.1 7.9 13.8 21.7 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 9.3 22.9 11.4 81.1 57.6 47.7 8.6 17.4 30.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 10.6 22.4 13.4 85.7 58.3 46.9 9.7 17.5 28.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 7.2 15.5 13.2 83.0 58.2 47.0 6.6 12.0 19.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 16.1 15.7 17.0 84.1 56.7 48.7 6.1 12.3 21.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 6.9 15.4 12.4 84.6 58.6 48.1 6.3 11.7 19.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 22.0 20.5 13.3 79.8 56.0 47.4 10.2 17.4 26.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 8.9 20.0 13.1 83.5 59.0 47.8 8.0 15.0 24.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 25.5 23.6 14.3 80.0 56.1 47.2 11.5 19.9 30.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 16.8 16.0 11.8 79.4 56.9 46.6 7.8 13.2 20.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 14.0 12.7 10.2 76.9 55.9 46.0 5.8 10.5 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 15.1 12.9 12.1 75.3 53.6 45.1 5.9 11.4 18.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 10.7 21.1 13.7 78.4 54.3 45.3 10.2 18.6 29.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 12.1 13.0 11.9 91.1 61.1 47.9 4.1 8.6 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 12.1 11.2 12.4 79.4 56.1 46.5 5.0 9.3 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 14.9 15.0 11.5 86.0 59.4 46.5 6.1 11.3 18.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 20.5 17.2 15.4 76.2 53.4 46.2 8.3 15.4 25.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 9.4 21.1 11.8 84.3 58.2 47.3 9.0 16.4 26.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 19.4 15.4 16.3 74.7 52.4 46.3 6.6 14.1 25.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 8.2 17.0 11.4 81.4 58.6 47.4 7.8 13.4 20.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 7.7 16.3 11.0 86.8 58.9 45.9 7.0 12.6 20.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 7.3 16.4 11.8 82.4 57.4 46.9 6.7 12.8 21.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 13.5 25.0 13.6 78.7 54.7 46.1 13.2 22.2 33.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 7.9 17.9 14.4 85.0 59.2 49.1 7.4 13.5 22.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 6.2 13.3 10.0 78.4 55.8 44.8 5.3 10.8 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 7.5 18.1 13.6 83.2 58.7 49.3 7.0 13.5 22.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.7 12.7 87.2 59.0 47.1 6.2 11.8 19.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 25.6 21.7 15.5 75.1 53.0 46.4 11.0 19.8 31.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 8.2 19.7 12.1 82.9 57.9 47.7 7.6 15.3 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------