***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.05.2018.-03.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 12.8 12.8 14.7 0.3 56.4 55.7 11.6 12.5 13.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 11.3 13.0 14.6 0.5 59.4 57.4 11.4 12.5 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 13.0 14.7 14.8 0.5 59.3 57.6 13.2 14.2 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 7.8 9.1 11.9 0.2 53.6 53.7 8.0 8.9 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 11.8 11.2 12.5 0.4 58.1 57.4 10.0 10.8 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 10.0 9.9 9.7 0.2 54.7 54.6 9.1 9.8 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 11.5 13.0 14.6 0.4 57.8 56.3 11.6 12.6 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 5.5 4.9 9.7 0.3 57.8 57.5 3.6 4.5 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 12.8 12.5 12.8 0.5 62.5 60.5 11.3 12.0 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 12.6 12.2 10.8 0.4 59.6 58.5 11.2 11.9 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 12.3 11.9 11.8 0.4 59.4 58.5 10.8 11.5 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 10.7 10.1 10.6 0.3 57.2 57.0 9.0 9.8 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 11.4 11.3 10.5 0.2 55.3 55.5 10.4 11.1 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 13.5 13.2 12.5 0.6 62.9 60.0 11.8 12.6 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 13.2 13.1 13.3 0.2 55.3 55.1 12.2 12.9 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 12.3 12.2 11.2 0.3 56.1 55.9 11.1 11.9 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 11.7 13.3 14.5 0.6 60.7 58.3 11.8 12.7 13.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 11.2 10.8 10.1 0.4 59.4 58.1 9.7 10.4 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 13.5 13.1 14.7 0.6 62.6 59.6 11.6 12.5 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 7.2 6.7 8.1 0.3 57.9 57.6 5.6 6.4 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 12.8 12.4 13.9 0.4 59.4 58.0 11.2 12.0 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 13.1 12.8 14.6 0.7 64.2 60.6 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 13.3 13.2 14.7 0.9 67.6 62.9 11.2 12.2 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 12.9 12.5 12.4 0.5 62.3 59.9 11.2 12.0 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 11.0 12.4 13.5 0.3 55.2 55.0 11.2 12.1 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 10.9 10.8 9.9 0.2 55.4 55.4 9.8 10.6 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 12.9 12.7 14.0 0.2 54.8 54.4 11.2 12.4 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 11.2 11.0 12.2 0.1 53.1 53.5 10.2 10.9 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 10.0 9.5 9.4 0.4 60.7 59.1 7.8 8.8 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 11.5 13.1 14.7 0.4 58.1 56.6 11.7 12.7 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------