***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.06.2018.-10.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 14.2 14.4 15.5 0.6 60.4 58.2 13.1 13.9 14.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 14.3 14.6 15.5 0.7 62.7 59.0 12.9 13.9 14.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 15.8 16.2 15.7 0.6 62.6 59.2 14.4 15.4 16.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 11.0 11.1 12.8 0.4 57.4 56.7 9.5 10.6 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 12.5 12.6 12.9 0.4 59.1 58.0 11.5 12.2 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 11.4 11.6 10.8 0.5 60.5 58.7 10.5 11.2 11.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 14.3 14.6 15.6 0.7 62.4 59.2 13.2 14.0 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 6.8 6.5 10.7 0.5 61.8 60.1 5.0 5.9 6.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 13.5 13.6 13.2 0.5 59.7 58.4 12.5 13.2 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 13.4 13.5 11.6 0.5 60.1 58.9 12.4 13.1 13.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 13.2 13.3 12.3 0.5 60.0 58.7 12.2 12.9 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 11.4 11.6 11.4 0.5 60.3 59.0 10.5 11.2 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 12.8 12.9 11.0 0.3 57.1 56.4 11.8 12.6 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 14.3 14.4 13.1 0.5 60.2 58.2 13.1 13.9 14.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 14.3 14.4 14.0 0.3 57.5 56.7 13.3 14.1 14.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 13.6 13.7 11.8 0.4 58.3 57.3 12.6 13.3 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 14.6 14.9 15.5 0.8 63.4 59.8 13.4 14.2 15.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 12.3 12.4 10.8 0.4 60.0 58.9 11.1 12.0 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 14.1 14.5 15.6 0.8 64.0 59.7 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 7.9 8.1 8.7 0.5 61.8 60.1 7.0 7.6 8.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 13.5 13.7 14.6 0.5 60.2 58.5 12.5 13.3 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 13.8 14.1 15.3 0.8 64.5 60.3 12.6 13.5 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 13.8 14.3 15.4 0.8 65.8 60.8 12.7 13.5 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 13.7 13.9 12.9 0.5 61.1 59.0 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 13.8 14.0 14.0 0.5 59.5 58.1 12.8 13.6 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 12.3 12.4 10.8 0.4 59.4 58.0 11.4 12.0 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 14.0 14.2 14.8 0.5 59.8 58.1 12.7 13.6 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 12.5 12.5 13.1 0.3 56.8 56.2 11.6 12.3 12.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 10.6 10.8 10.2 0.5 60.7 59.4 9.3 10.2 11.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 14.5 14.8 15.6 0.7 62.1 58.6 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------