***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.06.2018.-17.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 15.7 15.5 16.3 0.8 65.3 60.8 14.1 14.9 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 15.5 15.2 16.3 0.8 65.4 61.1 13.2 14.3 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 17.3 17.0 16.6 0.9 67.2 62.2 15.0 16.0 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 12.4 12.1 13.8 0.7 64.4 60.7 9.9 11.1 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 14.1 14.0 13.9 0.8 67.0 62.6 12.3 13.1 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 12.9 12.7 11.6 0.7 65.7 61.4 11.2 12.0 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 15.5 15.3 16.4 0.9 65.2 61.0 13.5 14.5 15.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 7.9 7.6 11.5 0.7 66.0 62.1 5.6 6.6 7.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 15.3 15.1 14.1 0.9 68.1 63.4 13.4 14.2 15.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 15.1 14.9 12.5 0.8 67.2 62.9 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 14.9 14.8 13.2 0.8 67.9 63.1 13.1 13.9 14.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 12.8 12.7 12.2 0.8 66.8 62.5 11.1 11.9 12.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 14.4 14.1 11.8 0.7 65.3 61.4 12.7 13.4 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 15.6 15.3 14.0 0.7 64.4 60.8 13.7 14.6 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 16.0 15.8 15.0 0.7 64.9 60.7 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 15.4 15.2 12.7 0.8 66.8 62.3 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 15.8 15.6 16.2 0.9 65.8 61.5 13.8 14.7 15.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 13.6 13.4 11.7 0.8 67.6 63.2 11.8 12.6 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 15.5 15.2 16.3 0.9 66.4 61.8 13.5 14.4 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 9.3 9.0 9.3 0.6 64.1 61.1 7.5 8.3 9.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 15.3 15.1 15.5 0.8 66.7 62.1 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 15.0 14.8 16.0 0.9 66.2 61.9 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 15.1 14.9 16.2 0.9 68.1 63.0 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 15.3 15.1 13.9 0.8 67.9 63.2 13.1 14.1 15.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 15.1 14.8 14.8 0.8 64.0 60.2 13.1 14.0 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 13.8 13.7 11.6 0.8 67.5 63.2 12.0 12.8 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 15.1 14.9 15.6 0.8 64.3 60.3 13.0 14.0 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 14.1 13.8 14.0 0.7 64.4 60.5 12.3 13.1 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 12.0 11.8 11.0 0.7 66.3 62.4 9.6 10.7 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 15.7 15.4 16.4 0.8 65.4 61.0 13.6 14.6 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------