***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2018.-17.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 13.9 14.0 15.2 0.7 70.8 66.1 12.9 13.4 13.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 13.9 14.0 15.2 0.8 71.6 66.7 12.6 13.2 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 15.5 15.7 15.4 0.8 73.2 67.9 14.3 14.9 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 10.0 10.4 12.5 0.6 67.3 63.9 9.2 9.8 10.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 12.3 12.4 13.0 0.7 73.4 68.8 11.3 11.8 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 11.1 11.2 10.5 0.6 72.0 67.5 10.2 10.6 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 13.9 13.9 15.2 0.7 70.0 65.8 12.8 13.3 13.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 5.9 6.1 10.4 0.7 73.5 69.0 4.9 5.4 5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 13.3 13.5 13.3 0.8 76.4 71.0 12.3 12.7 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 13.1 13.3 11.5 0.7 74.6 69.7 12.1 12.6 13.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 13.0 13.1 12.4 0.8 75.2 70.3 12.0 12.4 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 11.1 11.2 11.3 0.7 73.7 68.9 10.1 10.6 11.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 12.4 12.6 11.1 0.6 72.2 67.3 11.6 12.0 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 13.9 14.1 13.0 0.8 74.7 69.5 12.8 13.3 13.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 14.1 14.3 14.0 0.6 71.0 66.8 13.2 13.7 14.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 13.4 13.5 11.8 0.7 73.4 68.6 12.3 12.8 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 14.1 14.2 15.0 0.8 71.6 66.9 13.0 13.5 14.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 11.9 12.1 10.7 0.7 74.0 69.4 10.7 11.3 11.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 13.8 14.0 15.3 0.9 75.0 69.3 12.7 13.2 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 7.6 7.8 8.6 0.6 72.3 67.9 6.7 7.2 7.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 13.2 13.4 14.5 0.8 73.6 68.4 12.3 12.7 13.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 13.3 13.6 15.0 0.9 75.2 70.0 12.3 12.8 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 13.4 13.9 15.2 1.1 79.8 73.5 12.3 12.9 13.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 13.5 13.7 12.9 0.8 75.2 70.0 12.2 12.8 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 13.5 13.6 14.0 0.7 70.0 65.6 12.3 12.9 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 11.9 12.1 10.6 0.6 73.1 68.6 11.0 11.4 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 13.7 13.7 14.6 0.7 69.0 64.9 12.5 13.0 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 44 56 100 12.2 12.2 12.9 0.5 68.3 64.6 11.3 11.7 12.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 10.2 10.3 10.0 0.7 74.1 69.4 9.1 9.6 10.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 14.0 14.1 15.3 0.8 71.3 66.5 12.9 13.4 13.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------