***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.05.2018.-03.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 24.7 24.6 24.4 0.4 55.6 54.3 22.7 24.1 25.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 25.0 24.9 24.5 0.4 55.5 53.8 23.0 24.5 25.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 24.9 24.6 24.4 0.3 53.8 53.2 22.9 24.3 25.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 15.4 16.9 21.1 -0.1 48.7 49.4 15.7 17.0 18.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 23.0 24.8 22.3 0.1 51.9 52.2 23.3 24.7 26.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 23.6 22.7 19.4 -0.3 46.1 47.9 21.7 23.0 24.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 24.6 24.5 24.4 0.4 55.1 53.5 22.7 24.1 25.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 10.6 12.2 19.9 -0.2 48.0 49.7 10.9 12.3 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 22.4 24.3 23.0 0.3 53.3 53.3 22.7 24.0 25.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 22.3 23.9 21.0 0.0 50.0 50.9 22.6 23.9 25.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 22.7 24.3 22.1 0.0 49.6 50.6 23.0 24.3 25.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 21.8 23.2 20.9 -0.1 48.9 50.2 22.0 23.3 24.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 24.9 24.2 21.0 -0.2 47.7 49.3 23.0 24.3 25.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 24.7 24.2 22.6 0.1 51.3 51.8 22.7 24.1 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 23.6 25.0 23.0 0.0 49.7 49.8 23.9 25.0 26.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 23.3 24.8 21.4 -0.1 48.0 49.4 23.5 24.9 26.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 24.3 24.5 24.5 0.7 58.6 55.8 22.5 23.9 25.1 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 21.8 23.3 20.3 -0.1 49.1 50.3 22.0 23.4 24.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 24.5 24.5 24.6 0.5 56.9 54.9 22.6 24.0 25.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 19.2 18.5 17.9 -0.1 48.1 49.8 17.2 18.6 20.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 24.9 24.5 23.9 0.2 53.2 53.0 22.9 24.3 25.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 24.9 25.0 24.3 0.6 57.8 55.3 22.9 24.4 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 24.8 25.1 24.7 0.8 60.1 57.4 22.9 24.3 25.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 24.3 23.8 22.5 0.1 51.5 52.0 22.3 23.7 25.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 25.0 24.8 22.9 0.3 54.1 53.2 23.2 24.5 25.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 24.4 24.0 20.2 0.1 51.4 51.8 22.6 23.9 25.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 24.7 24.5 23.7 0.3 54.8 53.6 22.7 24.1 25.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 23.7 24.9 21.7 -0.2 47.1 48.2 23.9 25.0 26.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 16.9 18.4 19.4 -0.1 48.8 50.4 17.1 18.5 19.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 24.9 24.7 24.4 0.3 54.3 53.1 22.9 24.3 25.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------