***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2018.-17.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 25.3 26.0 25.1 0.9 67.9 63.8 24.2 25.0 25.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 25.3 25.9 25.2 0.9 66.7 62.9 24.3 25.1 25.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 25.3 25.8 25.2 0.8 66.3 62.5 24.3 25.1 25.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 18.2 18.3 22.0 0.4 58.6 56.6 17.2 17.9 18.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 25.7 26.0 23.0 0.6 62.9 60.2 24.7 25.4 26.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 24.1 24.0 20.0 0.1 53.5 52.9 23.1 23.9 24.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 25.0 25.5 25.1 0.8 65.5 61.9 23.9 24.8 25.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 13.6 13.6 20.5 0.3 55.7 54.8 12.6 13.3 14.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 25.0 25.4 23.6 0.7 64.9 61.7 24.0 24.8 25.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 24.9 25.1 21.7 0.5 59.5 57.6 23.9 24.7 25.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 25.4 25.5 22.7 0.5 59.7 57.7 24.4 25.1 25.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 24.3 24.4 21.7 0.4 57.7 56.3 23.4 24.1 24.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 25.5 25.5 21.5 0.3 56.2 55.2 24.4 25.2 25.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 25.1 25.3 23.2 0.6 61.2 58.9 24.1 24.9 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 26.0 26.2 23.6 0.5 60.1 57.9 25.1 25.8 26.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 26.0 26.1 22.0 0.3 57.3 55.8 25.0 25.8 26.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 24.7 25.5 25.2 1.1 69.5 65.3 23.7 24.5 25.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 24.4 24.5 21.0 0.4 58.1 56.5 23.5 24.2 24.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 24.8 25.5 25.3 1.0 69.0 64.7 23.8 24.6 25.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 19.8 19.8 18.4 0.2 54.6 54.1 18.7 19.6 20.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 25.2 25.7 24.6 0.7 64.7 61.4 24.2 25.0 25.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 25.2 26.0 25.0 1.1 69.4 65.3 24.2 25.0 25.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 43 57 100 25.8 26.1 25.4 1.2 72.9 68.1 24.2 25.0 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 24.7 25.0 23.1 0.6 62.2 59.5 23.7 24.5 25.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 25.4 25.9 23.5 0.8 65.6 62.1 24.4 25.1 25.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 24.9 25.2 21.0 0.5 61.4 59.7 24.0 24.7 25.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 25.0 25.6 24.3 0.8 66.5 62.7 24.0 24.8 25.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 26.0 26.1 22.4 0.3 56.5 55.0 25.1 25.8 26.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 19.6 19.6 20.0 0.3 56.5 55.4 18.6 19.3 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 25.1 25.7 25.2 0.8 65.9 62.2 24.1 24.9 25.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------