***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2018.-27.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 12.9 16.9 20.2 113.2 67.4 58.0 5.9 10.4 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 10.2 13.5 18.5 118.1 69.1 58.3 4.8 8.1 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 12.1 17.8 22.1 122.4 70.5 60.7 5.9 10.1 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 17.1 22.5 25.1 118.3 68.8 59.6 8.4 13.9 20.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 16.1 21.3 25.0 119.1 69.0 60.8 8.5 13.4 19.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 17 83 100 19.4 26.2 39.3 162.5 82.9 75.2 4.2 8.2 14.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 9.9 14.1 18.8 118.6 69.3 58.0 4.1 7.7 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 30.1 34.7 38.1 142.8 76.8 68.9 11.4 18.1 26.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 18.3 19.0 26.7 127.8 72.0 64.5 5.4 9.8 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 22.2 24.9 35.9 134.8 74.3 66.6 8.3 13.6 20.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 15.9 18.6 30.2 138.6 75.1 66.2 5.7 9.5 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 18.6 22.7 31.0 146.1 77.5 69.0 5.2 9.8 15.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 43 57 100 15.5 15.4 28.7 118.4 68.6 62.6 4.7 8.8 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 13.2 18.6 26.9 120.8 69.7 62.5 7.0 11.3 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 18.8 19.9 23.3 128.2 72.1 62.5 5.6 10.3 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 15.2 17.2 28.5 133.5 73.6 66.5 4.8 8.5 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 9.1 13.2 19.4 125.5 71.5 59.6 3.9 7.1 11.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 19.1 21.8 34.5 133.1 73.8 67.4 6.3 11.1 17.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 12.5 17.5 19.6 120.6 69.8 59.6 5.7 10.1 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 17.8 19.3 35.4 128.0 72.1 65.5 7.0 11.2 16.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 15.6 17.2 25.5 130.4 72.8 64.1 4.8 8.7 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 10.3 15.0 19.0 123.7 71.0 59.1 4.2 7.9 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 9.0 14.0 21.8 127.2 71.8 62.1 4.1 7.3 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 47 53 100 16.5 18.9 27.8 128.2 72.2 65.5 5.2 9.6 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 13.0 16.0 22.1 108.6 65.5 56.0 5.3 9.9 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 18.0 23.2 31.0 149.6 78.8 70.1 6.1 10.4 16.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 12.6 16.3 21.1 111.7 66.6 57.6 5.4 9.8 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 17.2 18.9 28.5 134.6 73.9 64.5 5.4 9.6 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 25.5 28.6 34.5 134.1 74.2 66.9 9.9 15.9 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 11.2 15.4 19.2 119.1 69.4 59.2 4.6 8.5 13.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------