***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.05.2018.-03.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 15.9 18.6 19.8 104.5 64.7 53.2 7.1 12.4 19.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 15.4 22.5 20.5 120.4 70.1 57.6 5.9 11.5 19.6 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 8.0 21.6 20.0 112.1 67.2 55.3 7.5 13.2 20.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 19.1 24.3 23.6 112.1 67.0 54.8 8.7 15.1 23.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 13.8 19.2 23.2 116.7 68.6 56.2 6.4 11.3 17.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 18.2 21.4 27.4 115.1 67.4 55.7 10.8 15.4 20.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 13.1 17.8 19.9 114.4 68.1 56.2 4.6 9.4 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 28.3 34.9 24.1 113.3 67.6 55.1 15.7 23.9 33.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 13.0 16.3 23.0 112.3 67.2 54.0 5.3 9.7 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 17.1 21.1 24.6 112.2 67.4 54.1 8.4 13.7 20.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 13.6 18.0 24.1 115.1 67.9 56.0 6.5 11.1 17.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 15.6 19.8 23.3 115.4 67.8 56.6 8.7 13.3 19.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 20.1 23.1 28.1 140.6 75.6 63.5 8.8 13.3 18.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 10.5 34.4 27.9 124.4 70.9 57.3 9.2 17.8 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 12.1 16.9 22.8 113.2 67.8 53.8 4.5 9.2 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 13.9 19.4 24.8 122.6 69.9 57.6 6.7 11.4 17.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 14.9 19.7 18.8 114.0 68.2 56.3 6.0 11.2 18.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 20.1 26.1 27.3 120.2 69.3 56.3 9.8 16.1 24.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 14.2 20.2 19.8 117.5 69.1 56.8 4.5 9.8 17.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 18.1 26.6 29.5 135.3 74.4 62.0 9.7 15.1 21.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 15.4 18.6 21.1 109.7 66.5 52.5 7.3 12.1 18.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 17.8 25.9 19.6 117.6 69.3 57.1 6.0 12.5 22.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 7.0 19.9 19.3 112.4 67.3 54.6 6.9 12.1 19.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 20.6 26.7 25.3 121.5 69.9 56.3 10.2 16.4 24.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 14.8 18.7 22.9 109.7 66.1 53.5 6.2 11.4 18.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 17.5 17.8 26.1 125.7 71.2 60.1 4.6 9.0 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 14.0 15.9 21.3 103.1 63.7 52.7 6.5 11.1 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 13.4 17.0 23.1 114.3 68.0 54.7 6.8 11.0 16.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 31.6 33.8 29.9 129.5 72.4 59.9 12.1 19.5 28.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 6.7 19.1 19.7 113.2 67.5 55.2 6.3 11.4 18.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------