***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.06.2018.-10.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 20.2 22.5 18.2 100.1 62.9 46.6 8.0 15.0 24.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 9.2 21.9 16.0 97.9 62.3 46.5 9.1 15.6 24.3 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 9.2 25.8 19.5 108.0 66.1 48.4 8.4 15.7 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 8.9 22.4 19.6 101.2 63.0 48.5 8.5 15.2 24.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 7.6 18.8 18.3 98.9 62.6 48.9 7.2 13.0 20.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 17.5 19.4 23.7 103.4 63.0 50.2 8.4 13.9 21.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 8.7 17.5 15.4 92.7 59.9 44.3 8.6 13.7 20.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 26.2 29.3 21.9 100.3 62.8 50.1 13.4 21.3 31.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 9.9 19.9 19.2 96.7 61.9 47.9 9.6 15.0 21.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 17.5 19.0 22.3 97.8 62.2 48.4 8.1 13.8 21.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 7.3 18.3 16.9 98.4 62.5 47.9 6.8 12.6 20.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.5 15.8 19.2 103.6 63.9 51.3 5.0 9.9 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 15.4 20.3 22.6 115.2 68.1 55.5 6.3 11.7 19.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 25.8 30.3 25.4 107.2 65.4 49.7 13.0 20.9 30.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 5.4 17.2 19.2 107.9 66.0 47.9 4.8 9.8 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 5.5 15.8 19.6 106.4 64.9 51.2 4.7 9.5 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 8.9 19.8 13.0 82.1 55.4 40.6 8.4 16.3 27.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 20.1 23.5 27.6 108.3 65.6 52.0 11.7 17.1 23.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 10.0 25.7 17.0 101.8 64.2 47.5 9.5 17.1 27.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 16.3 20.5 27.3 110.6 66.4 56.2 6.9 12.4 20.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 6.8 19.8 19.4 105.8 65.3 47.8 6.0 11.9 20.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 9.2 20.1 14.3 90.3 59.2 44.4 8.9 15.5 24.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 7.7 20.2 18.0 102.8 64.7 46.7 7.5 13.2 20.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 23.2 27.5 24.3 109.2 66.2 50.3 12.5 19.2 27.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 8.3 22.0 20.0 100.8 62.9 46.8 8.3 15.0 24.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 12.7 16.8 21.1 115.8 68.1 56.2 5.0 9.5 15.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 8.4 21.2 19.3 98.0 61.8 46.7 7.4 14.4 24.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 5.4 14.5 19.7 103.6 64.1 47.7 5.2 9.5 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 25.5 29.7 27.5 108.3 65.3 52.7 13.1 20.8 30.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 11.4 25.1 17.5 105.1 65.2 48.5 11.3 17.7 25.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------