***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2018.-17.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 77.2 77.7 73.0 101.8 58.2 50.3 53.5 69.3 86.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 75.5 76.9 67.4 104.6 60.4 53.0 60.8 70.5 80.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 90.3 95.1 75.6 107.3 62.1 54.5 64.8 81.7 99.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 90.1 95.4 83.9 105.7 61.0 55.1 65.3 82.6 101.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 73.7 77.7 81.2 107.2 62.1 55.9 56.9 68.7 81.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 87.1 91.4 112.5 123.3 74.3 67.7 55.1 68.2 82.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 44.5 66.3 66.5 101.8 58.4 51.4 45.1 58.7 73.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 109.0 121.1 103.7 115.7 68.4 62.6 88.7 103.4 118.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 74.2 78.5 84.1 107.6 62.4 56.3 59.3 69.8 81.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 86.2 94.0 102.3 111.5 65.3 59.4 67.1 80.6 94.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 68.0 74.7 85.9 114.0 66.7 60.2 55.4 64.7 74.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 75.4 76.0 90.4 117.7 69.4 63.1 49.0 60.7 73.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 77.9 79.6 100.1 122.0 72.2 65.2 52.1 63.0 74.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 100.5 108.4 99.1 109.3 63.6 57.1 78.4 94.2 111.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 62.7 69.0 78.0 108.0 62.8 55.4 42.5 56.7 72.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 68.9 69.6 90.4 117.9 69.4 62.8 45.1 55.5 66.8 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 46.6 71.7 63.3 100.5 57.7 50.4 47.0 63.3 82.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 95.0 94.6 112.6 115.3 68.0 62.3 66.5 79.2 92.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 85.8 88.8 69.3 105.5 61.0 54.0 64.9 78.8 93.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 92.5 94.2 115.6 120.3 71.7 66.0 63.0 75.5 88.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 69.9 75.6 80.4 109.6 63.7 55.7 51.5 64.2 77.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 77.6 79.4 66.4 102.7 59.4 52.7 54.2 69.8 87.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 71.1 73.7 72.5 106.0 61.4 54.8 55.9 66.3 76.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 94.2 102.5 95.9 112.3 65.7 59.2 73.8 88.1 102.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 77.7 79.7 82.2 103.5 59.4 50.7 55.9 70.7 86.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 75.2 79.5 95.2 124.7 73.6 67.1 46.4 58.5 71.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 77.3 77.4 78.1 100.9 57.5 49.6 56.2 70.6 86.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 62.6 68.6 86.5 111.2 64.8 58.7 48.6 58.9 69.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 118.4 120.4 115.4 118.5 70.5 64.7 83.8 99.3 115.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 60.2 83.3 69.3 105.1 60.8 53.5 61.2 74.0 88.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------