***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.05.2017.-04.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 11.5 12.7 14.5 0.3 55.6 54.0 11.6 12.4 13.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 12.9 12.9 14.4 0.4 58.2 55.8 11.4 12.4 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 14.5 14.4 14.5 0.3 55.3 53.4 13.2 14.1 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 9.3 8.9 11.8 0.0 49.9 49.6 8.0 8.9 9.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.3 11.1 12.2 0.1 52.7 51.9 10.1 10.9 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.1 9.9 9.8 0.1 51.5 50.7 9.3 9.9 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 11.5 13.0 14.4 0.4 57.4 55.3 11.7 12.6 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 3.6 4.5 9.4 -0.1 48.2 48.3 3.8 4.6 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 12.3 12.2 12.3 0.2 53.3 52.4 11.3 12.0 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 11.2 12.0 10.5 0.0 49.7 49.5 11.3 12.0 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.9 11.5 11.4 -0.1 48.2 48.5 10.9 11.6 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 10.3 9.9 10.4 0.0 49.6 49.2 9.2 9.9 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 11.5 11.3 10.4 0.0 50.3 49.5 10.5 11.2 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 13.0 12.9 12.1 0.2 54.2 52.7 11.9 12.7 13.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 13.3 12.9 13.0 -0.1 47.9 48.2 12.3 13.0 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 12.3 12.0 11.0 0.0 49.9 49.5 11.2 12.0 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 11.8 13.2 14.2 0.5 59.0 56.2 11.9 12.8 13.6 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 9.7 10.7 9.9 0.1 51.5 50.8 9.8 10.6 11.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 12.9 12.9 14.3 0.4 57.2 54.9 11.7 12.5 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 5.7 6.7 8.0 0.1 52.9 51.7 5.8 6.6 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 12.3 12.2 13.6 0.2 53.8 52.6 11.3 12.0 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 11.1 12.4 14.0 0.3 56.6 54.4 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 12.5 12.4 14.0 0.3 55.8 53.8 11.1 12.1 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 12.4 12.2 12.0 0.1 53.0 51.8 11.3 12.1 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 12.5 12.3 13.2 0.2 52.8 52.1 11.3 12.1 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 9.9 11.0 10.1 0.3 56.9 53.7 10.0 10.7 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 12.7 12.6 13.9 0.3 55.8 54.2 11.1 12.2 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 11.2 10.9 12.1 0.0 49.6 49.2 10.2 10.9 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 7.8 9.0 9.1 0.0 50.2 49.8 8.0 9.0 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 13.1 13.0 14.5 0.4 56.8 54.9 11.7 12.7 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------