***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.06.2017.-11.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 14.6 15.2 15.8 1.0 69.4 63.5 13.4 14.2 15.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 15.4 15.6 15.9 1.2 71.6 64.7 13.1 14.2 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 16.9 17.0 15.9 1.0 69.9 64.2 14.6 15.7 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 12.2 12.2 13.1 0.8 67.5 62.5 9.7 10.9 12.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 13.2 13.2 13.1 0.8 67.6 62.8 11.7 12.4 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 12.2 12.3 11.2 0.9 72.3 66.6 10.6 11.3 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 15.3 15.4 15.9 1.2 71.2 64.3 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 6.5 7.1 10.8 0.8 67.2 62.0 5.1 6.1 7.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 14.3 14.3 13.4 0.8 68.5 63.6 12.7 13.5 14.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 14.1 14.1 11.8 0.8 67.9 62.9 12.6 13.3 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 13.8 13.9 12.4 0.8 67.7 62.7 12.4 13.1 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 11.6 12.0 11.5 0.7 66.1 61.6 10.6 11.3 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 13.5 13.4 11.1 0.7 65.4 62.2 12.0 12.7 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 15.1 14.9 13.3 0.7 65.4 61.5 13.2 14.1 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 15.0 15.0 14.3 0.8 68.4 62.7 13.5 14.2 14.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 14.4 14.3 12.0 0.8 67.4 63.1 12.7 13.5 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 15.5 15.7 15.8 1.2 71.9 65.0 13.5 14.5 15.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 13.0 12.9 11.0 0.7 67.0 62.8 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 15.1 15.2 15.8 1.1 70.8 64.4 13.2 14.1 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 8.5 8.4 8.8 0.7 65.3 61.3 7.1 7.8 8.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 14.3 14.4 14.8 0.9 68.6 63.5 12.8 13.5 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 14.6 14.7 15.4 1.0 69.3 63.7 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 14.8 14.8 15.4 1.0 69.1 63.6 12.9 13.8 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 14.6 14.5 13.1 0.8 67.6 63.2 12.7 13.6 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 14.1 14.6 14.2 0.8 66.4 61.6 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 13.0 13.0 11.0 0.8 69.0 64.2 11.5 12.2 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 15.0 15.1 15.0 1.0 68.4 62.8 12.9 13.9 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 13.2 13.2 13.4 0.8 68.2 63.0 11.8 12.4 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 11.5 11.3 10.3 0.7 65.4 61.6 9.4 10.4 11.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 15.5 15.6 16.0 1.1 70.6 64.1 13.4 14.4 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------