***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.06.2017.-18.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 15.0 15.4 16.4 0.9 66.0 62.2 14.0 14.7 15.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 15.2 15.3 16.6 1.1 70.8 65.1 13.0 14.0 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 16.8 16.8 16.6 0.9 67.9 63.7 14.9 15.8 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 11.2 11.9 13.8 0.7 65.4 62.3 9.7 10.9 11.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 13.3 13.8 13.8 0.7 65.1 61.9 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 12.3 12.8 11.8 0.7 65.7 62.5 11.2 12.1 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 15.3 15.4 16.7 1.1 70.5 64.7 13.3 14.3 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 6.8 7.4 11.4 0.6 64.7 61.0 5.4 6.5 7.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 14.4 14.9 14.1 0.7 65.9 62.4 13.3 14.1 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 14.1 14.6 12.4 0.7 65.2 61.6 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 14.1 14.6 13.2 0.7 65.7 62.3 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 12.1 12.5 12.1 0.6 63.6 60.4 11.1 11.9 12.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 13.7 13.9 11.7 0.4 60.4 58.7 12.7 13.4 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 14.8 15.1 14.0 0.6 63.3 60.0 13.6 14.5 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 15.5 15.9 15.0 0.7 64.7 62.0 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 14.5 15.0 12.6 0.6 64.2 61.6 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 15.5 15.7 16.5 1.2 71.6 65.5 13.6 14.5 15.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 12.8 13.3 11.7 0.7 65.8 62.0 11.8 12.6 13.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 15.1 15.3 16.6 1.1 70.1 64.8 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 8.5 9.0 9.4 0.6 64.1 60.6 7.5 8.3 9.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 14.4 14.9 15.4 0.7 65.6 62.0 13.2 14.1 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 14.7 14.8 16.2 1.1 69.5 64.5 12.9 13.8 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 43 57 100 14.7 14.8 16.2 0.9 68.3 63.7 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 14.3 14.9 13.8 0.7 66.1 62.4 12.9 13.9 14.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 14.2 14.6 14.8 0.7 62.9 60.0 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 44 56 100 13.6 13.6 11.6 0.7 65.8 62.8 12.1 12.8 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 14.1 14.6 15.6 0.8 64.6 61.3 12.8 13.8 14.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 13.4 13.9 14.2 0.7 65.4 62.6 12.3 13.1 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 10.9 11.6 11.0 0.7 65.7 61.7 9.4 10.5 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 15.4 15.4 16.7 1.0 69.1 64.0 13.4 14.4 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------