***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.05.2017.-28.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 24.5 24.0 22.7 -0.1 48.4 48.6 22.7 24.1 25.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 24.8 24.7 23.1 0.2 53.2 52.7 23.3 24.5 25.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 24.9 24.1 22.5 -0.4 45.1 45.6 23.2 24.4 25.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 17.4 16.1 19.2 -0.7 40.2 41.1 15.5 17.0 18.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 24.9 23.6 20.2 -0.8 39.6 40.5 23.1 24.5 25.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 21.0 21.3 17.4 -1.3 31.0 32.6 21.4 22.8 24.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 24.4 24.2 23.0 0.2 52.7 52.4 22.7 24.0 25.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 13.0 11.2 17.7 -1.0 35.9 37.0 10.9 12.4 13.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 24.3 23.5 21.4 -0.4 44.1 44.7 22.5 23.9 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 24.3 23.0 19.1 -0.8 39.8 40.7 22.5 23.8 25.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 24.6 23.3 20.4 -0.8 38.9 39.8 22.8 24.1 25.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 23.5 22.0 18.8 -1.0 36.7 37.8 21.7 23.0 24.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 22.5 23.0 19.6 -1.0 36.1 37.3 22.7 24.1 25.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 24.8 23.6 20.8 -0.7 40.5 41.4 23.0 24.3 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 25.0 24.1 22.1 -0.5 42.8 43.4 23.3 24.6 25.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 25.3 23.6 19.7 -0.9 37.1 38.1 23.3 24.7 26.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 24.2 24.3 22.9 0.4 55.5 54.8 22.6 23.9 25.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 23.9 22.4 18.0 -1.0 37.3 38.4 22.1 23.4 24.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 24.4 24.1 22.9 0.1 51.1 50.9 22.8 24.0 25.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 16.7 17.0 15.6 -1.3 33.0 34.3 17.0 18.5 19.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 24.5 23.5 22.2 -0.6 42.2 43.0 22.8 24.1 25.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 24.7 24.4 22.5 0.0 50.4 50.2 23.1 24.4 25.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 24.9 24.4 22.6 -0.1 49.0 49.0 23.2 24.5 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 24.2 23.1 20.6 -0.8 40.1 41.1 22.5 23.8 25.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 24.6 23.6 21.2 -0.6 42.3 43.0 22.8 24.2 25.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 23.9 22.4 18.1 -0.9 36.8 38.0 22.1 23.4 24.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 24.3 23.6 22.0 -0.3 46.2 46.6 22.6 23.9 25.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 25.1 23.8 20.2 -0.7 39.6 40.5 23.3 24.6 25.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 19.0 17.4 17.2 -1.1 36.3 37.6 17.1 18.5 19.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 24.7 24.4 23.0 0.1 51.2 51.0 23.0 24.3 25.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------