***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.05.2017.-04.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 25.6 25.8 25.7 1.7 71.0 63.5 22.5 24.0 25.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 26.2 26.5 26.0 1.9 72.8 65.6 22.8 24.4 25.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 26.0 26.2 25.9 1.8 71.0 63.6 22.7 24.3 25.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 18.4 18.4 22.8 1.5 69.1 61.4 15.7 17.0 18.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 26.2 26.2 23.8 1.5 68.6 62.1 23.3 24.7 26.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 24.5 24.5 21.4 1.6 70.2 62.8 21.7 23.0 24.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 25.8 26.0 25.8 1.7 71.4 64.5 22.6 24.1 25.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 13.9 14.0 21.8 1.7 70.3 63.3 11.1 12.4 13.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 25.6 25.8 24.7 1.8 71.6 64.1 22.6 24.0 25.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 25.3 25.6 23.0 1.8 71.4 64.2 22.6 23.9 25.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 25.7 25.8 23.9 1.6 69.4 62.6 23.0 24.3 25.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 24.6 24.7 22.8 1.6 69.6 62.7 22.1 23.3 24.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 25.9 25.8 22.9 1.5 68.2 61.9 23.1 24.4 25.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 25.7 25.8 24.2 1.7 69.5 63.3 22.6 24.1 25.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 25.4 26.2 24.6 1.4 68.9 60.8 24.0 25.0 26.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 26.4 26.4 23.3 1.6 69.1 62.2 23.6 24.9 26.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 25.6 25.9 25.8 1.8 72.5 65.7 22.4 23.9 25.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 24.9 25.1 22.2 1.9 71.5 64.5 22.0 23.4 24.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 25.8 26.1 26.0 1.9 72.9 65.5 22.4 23.9 25.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 20.3 20.4 19.8 1.7 70.3 63.8 17.4 18.8 20.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 25.9 25.9 25.4 1.6 69.7 62.9 22.8 24.2 25.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 26.2 26.3 25.4 1.6 69.9 64.0 22.8 24.4 25.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 26.0 26.4 25.9 1.9 73.1 65.3 22.8 24.3 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 25.3 25.5 24.3 1.8 71.1 64.1 22.3 23.7 25.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 25.9 25.8 24.0 1.3 66.9 60.8 23.1 24.4 25.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 25.5 26.0 22.5 2.2 76.0 67.0 22.7 24.0 25.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 25.7 25.7 24.8 1.5 68.8 62.2 22.7 24.1 25.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 26.2 26.3 23.5 1.5 69.7 61.5 24.0 25.1 26.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 20.2 20.3 21.4 1.8 70.8 64.2 17.2 18.6 19.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 26.0 26.2 25.9 1.8 71.7 64.5 22.7 24.2 25.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------