***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.06.2017.-11.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 27.9 28.3 26.5 1.7 72.2 66.1 24.2 25.9 27.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 27.9 28.5 26.9 2.1 75.5 68.0 24.3 25.9 27.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 27.8 28.2 26.8 1.8 72.0 65.9 24.3 26.0 27.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 20.4 20.5 24.1 1.4 70.0 63.9 17.3 18.8 20.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 28.0 28.1 24.5 1.4 68.9 63.2 24.8 26.4 27.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 25.4 26.4 21.9 1.3 68.2 62.5 23.6 25.0 26.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 27.5 27.9 26.8 2.0 74.5 67.2 24.0 25.5 27.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 14.6 15.7 22.6 1.4 68.6 62.9 12.8 14.2 15.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 27.3 27.6 24.9 1.6 70.2 64.1 24.1 25.7 27.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 26.1 27.4 23.4 1.5 69.3 63.4 24.0 25.6 27.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 26.8 28.1 24.2 1.5 69.9 63.8 24.7 26.2 27.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 26.5 26.7 23.7 1.5 69.6 63.4 23.7 25.1 26.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 26.8 27.8 22.8 1.4 68.1 62.4 24.9 26.3 27.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 27.6 27.3 24.3 1.3 65.4 60.9 24.1 25.8 27.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 28.3 28.6 25.1 1.5 72.6 65.6 25.4 26.7 28.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 28.3 28.6 23.7 1.5 70.3 64.0 25.4 26.8 28.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 27.4 27.8 26.8 2.0 74.4 67.1 23.8 25.4 26.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 25.6 26.7 22.9 1.5 68.1 62.5 23.4 25.0 26.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 27.4 27.9 26.9 2.1 74.5 67.3 23.8 25.5 27.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 21.1 22.0 20.2 1.3 66.8 61.6 19.0 20.5 21.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 27.6 27.8 25.7 1.5 68.9 63.4 24.2 25.9 27.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 27.9 28.1 26.3 1.8 71.7 65.2 24.2 25.9 27.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 27.7 28.0 26.5 1.8 71.5 65.4 24.2 25.8 27.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 27.0 27.1 24.5 1.5 68.3 62.8 23.7 25.3 26.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 27.7 27.7 24.5 1.4 68.3 63.0 24.4 26.0 27.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 27.3 28.1 23.6 2.2 78.0 69.1 24.5 25.8 27.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 27.4 27.6 25.5 1.6 71.1 65.1 24.2 25.7 27.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 28.2 28.4 24.3 1.5 71.1 64.6 25.4 26.7 28.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 20.8 21.7 21.8 1.3 66.0 61.0 18.5 20.2 21.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 27.7 28.1 26.8 2.0 74.2 67.2 24.2 25.8 27.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------