***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.05.2017.-28.05.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 10.4 13.5 20.9 117.2 68.5 60.3 5.4 8.6 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 10.8 14.0 17.4 111.1 66.4 58.9 4.8 8.7 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 10.6 15.0 21.4 120.7 69.7 59.9 4.3 8.1 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 14.4 17.3 22.2 103.8 63.6 54.4 7.2 12.1 18.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 13.2 17.3 24.2 116.9 68.5 59.3 7.4 11.5 16.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 11.6 14.3 25.9 106.1 63.7 56.1 4.8 9.2 15.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 10.6 12.5 16.6 102.9 63.4 56.0 4.6 8.4 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 21.7 28.0 32.0 115.8 67.1 60.1 11.2 18.3 27.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 10.3 14.3 25.2 119.7 69.1 59.6 4.5 8.1 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 15.0 19.8 31.7 118.9 68.7 60.6 7.6 12.4 18.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 11.2 15.0 26.1 119.6 69.5 61.1 6.2 9.7 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 11.7 16.3 25.6 116.3 67.6 60.2 5.4 9.7 15.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 11.3 15.3 26.7 110.7 66.2 57.7 4.8 9.2 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 21.7 23.5 29.4 132.0 73.3 63.6 7.1 12.4 19.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 12.4 12.5 16.1 86.6 58.1 48.5 5.5 9.8 15.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 10.3 13.8 23.6 112.8 67.0 58.0 4.8 8.5 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 7.5 10.0 16.1 110.0 66.0 58.9 3.0 5.9 10.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 12.6 19.1 32.5 123.9 70.5 62.4 5.5 10.2 16.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 15.5 16.3 19.7 125.7 71.2 62.3 5.3 9.1 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 13.1 16.5 31.8 107.6 63.8 57.9 6.7 11.3 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 9.1 12.1 23.7 120.8 69.7 59.9 4.8 7.6 11.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 12.2 19.7 18.5 128.5 72.3 62.9 5.1 9.7 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 12.3 13.2 22.6 137.7 74.9 64.8 3.6 6.4 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 17.2 19.3 28.4 131.1 73.1 63.7 5.9 10.2 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 8.4 10.7 23.2 113.2 67.4 58.4 4.2 6.9 10.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 12.0 14.8 22.5 107.7 64.5 56.0 5.6 9.8 15.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 10.7 13.2 21.3 110.2 66.1 58.7 5.5 8.9 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 11.4 13.0 21.4 100.9 62.8 52.4 5.4 9.2 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 20.1 28.2 31.9 120.3 69.1 61.4 9.9 16.8 26.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 9.5 11.9 18.1 109.1 65.6 57.7 4.1 7.5 12.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------