***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.05.2017.-04.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 7.2 11.8 12.6 62.7 44.5 35.3 8.2 13.7 21.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 6.2 13.0 12.7 75.0 52.7 40.1 6.7 12.1 19.1 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 8.2 13.6 12.9 67.7 47.3 37.8 8.5 14.7 22.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 9.3 17.7 14.7 72.2 50.1 38.0 10.9 17.7 26.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 7.5 12.0 13.8 67.1 46.8 37.0 8.1 13.1 19.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 8.3 11.7 16.9 68.4 43.3 37.1 9.0 13.5 18.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 3.9 9.4 12.8 74.5 53.0 40.7 3.7 8.4 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 70 30 0 100 11.7 15.2 11.3 50.5 35.6 29.5 14.1 22.4 32.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 7.2 10.3 12.6 59.9 43.2 34.5 7.8 12.3 17.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 7.5 10.2 11.8 51.4 37.9 31.0 8.8 13.7 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 5.7 7.9 13.5 60.5 41.2 35.7 5.9 10.7 17.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 6.1 8.0 12.1 57.1 38.2 32.8 6.7 11.2 17.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 72 28 0 100 5.4 8.8 12.6 57.6 41.3 32.7 6.7 11.3 17.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 8.1 14.7 15.4 63.6 45.0 36.5 9.4 17.5 28.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 4.6 10.0 14.7 73.9 51.8 39.6 4.5 9.4 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 6.5 9.5 13.6 62.3 42.2 35.1 7.1 11.8 17.7 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 7.2 14.7 12.6 76.3 52.5 41.0 7.8 13.7 21.2 29 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 9.6 12.5 13.2 54.3 37.9 31.6 10.9 16.8 24.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 6.1 13.3 12.9 73.5 51.3 39.1 6.3 12.8 22.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 7.3 9.0 11.4 48.1 33.7 27.7 8.8 13.7 19.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 6.2 10.5 12.9 63.8 45.7 35.8 6.9 11.9 18.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 5.9 11.9 12.8 72.6 50.7 39.6 5.4 11.6 20.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 6.7 12.9 13.6 71.5 50.0 39.2 7.2 12.9 20.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 9.0 13.5 13.4 59.4 41.5 34.2 10.5 17.0 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 6.3 10.9 14.9 65.6 45.8 36.3 6.9 12.6 20.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 3.9 6.5 13.8 64.0 42.5 35.7 4.3 8.4 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 6.7 10.9 14.8 67.0 46.5 37.0 7.1 12.0 18.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 5.5 10.6 14.1 71.3 49.7 38.0 6.2 10.8 16.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 11.4 15.2 14.0 55.9 37.9 31.4 13.4 19.9 27.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 5.9 12.1 12.9 74.0 51.8 39.8 6.4 11.4 18.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------