***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.06.2017.-11.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 6.7 15.5 13.7 76.3 54.4 42.0 6.7 13.3 22.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 7.1 16.0 11.8 77.7 55.8 41.6 7.3 13.5 21.6 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 7.2 17.1 13.5 80.0 55.5 41.7 7.8 14.5 23.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 6.1 15.3 13.9 82.0 56.0 40.7 6.4 12.4 21.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 5.7 12.4 12.0 74.3 52.7 40.4 5.7 11.3 19.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 8.7 16.4 17.0 86.0 56.1 45.3 8.3 13.9 21.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 8.2 16.4 12.2 80.2 57.3 43.6 7.9 13.5 20.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 12.4 21.5 14.2 77.3 52.7 40.8 12.5 20.1 29.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 6.5 13.6 12.3 72.1 52.0 41.0 7.1 12.8 20.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 6.5 13.1 14.3 73.0 51.2 40.2 6.3 12.6 21.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 5.9 12.5 11.3 76.2 53.9 39.8 5.7 10.9 18.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 4.9 11.1 12.6 80.7 55.0 42.0 4.1 9.1 16.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 14.4 12.6 13.4 77.9 54.5 43.9 5.6 10.8 18.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 9.3 20.1 17.2 78.1 54.2 43.0 10.1 17.7 27.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 4.5 13.4 14.0 95.5 62.4 45.1 4.4 8.7 15.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 5.3 11.4 12.6 79.6 55.1 42.0 4.6 9.5 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 7.2 18.8 12.6 82.8 58.0 41.7 6.9 14.2 24.6 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 8.2 14.7 17.3 76.4 52.1 43.1 8.0 13.9 21.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 5.8 14.8 12.2 78.1 55.6 41.5 6.0 12.1 21.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 7.2 12.9 17.0 76.0 50.6 42.3 6.7 12.7 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 5.4 13.4 13.4 79.4 55.8 41.7 5.3 10.9 19.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 7.8 17.6 13.3 82.6 57.7 42.6 7.2 13.8 22.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 6.7 15.0 12.7 77.8 55.5 42.6 7.1 12.8 20.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 9.1 18.4 15.8 79.3 54.6 43.6 9.4 16.2 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 6.3 15.3 15.3 80.5 56.0 42.8 6.1 12.4 21.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 13.1 11.4 12.4 80.7 55.2 45.1 4.7 9.4 16.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 7.0 16.7 15.3 79.7 56.0 44.0 6.7 13.6 23.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 3.9 10.7 14.1 88.8 59.1 42.8 3.6 7.7 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 9.1 18.0 18.1 79.0 52.7 44.1 8.9 16.5 26.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 8.3 17.4 12.1 76.1 55.0 41.5 8.5 15.1 23.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------