***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.06.2017.-18.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 6.2 14.5 15.0 81.9 56.5 42.5 5.5 11.4 20.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 7.0 14.5 11.0 71.1 51.3 37.2 7.4 13.8 23.0 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 10.1 23.4 14.3 82.2 56.4 42.7 9.5 18.9 32.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 8.0 22.2 14.2 84.7 58.5 42.3 8.3 16.6 28.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 6.7 15.8 13.4 86.7 58.5 44.6 6.2 12.0 20.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 5.0 12.7 13.9 77.6 53.2 40.3 5.4 11.2 20.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 6.0 13.0 10.9 69.1 50.2 36.8 6.8 12.8 21.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 9.9 23.8 16.5 93.5 59.6 45.9 10.2 18.1 28.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 8.8 19.1 14.0 84.4 57.3 44.4 7.9 15.1 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 10.2 24.5 17.1 89.1 58.0 44.8 10.4 19.1 31.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 6.9 15.8 12.2 81.8 55.7 42.5 7.4 13.3 21.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 4.5 12.0 12.9 88.0 58.1 44.0 4.6 9.1 15.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 4.9 13.8 13.1 83.4 57.0 41.6 5.3 10.7 18.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 9.7 25.9 20.2 98.6 62.2 47.4 9.5 17.7 29.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 4.0 12.4 12.4 82.8 59.1 40.5 4.2 8.7 15.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 4.0 9.9 12.1 79.7 55.5 41.4 4.3 8.2 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 5.9 11.7 10.5 69.0 50.3 36.1 6.3 11.7 18.8 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 8.8 23.6 21.2 100.3 62.3 48.3 8.9 16.3 26.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 9.5 20.1 12.1 77.7 54.1 39.3 9.9 17.8 28.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 8.5 26.2 21.3 110.8 66.0 50.8 8.0 15.6 26.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 8.5 17.5 14.0 83.4 57.4 43.2 8.5 14.4 22.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 6.3 13.5 12.4 79.5 55.0 38.3 6.8 11.8 18.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 7.0 16.6 13.8 88.0 58.7 43.5 6.6 12.5 20.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 13.5 30.9 18.2 94.5 60.7 47.2 13.6 23.1 35.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 7.2 17.7 15.8 84.3 58.0 44.2 7.1 13.7 23.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 5.4 16.1 11.5 93.0 61.3 45.9 5.4 11.1 18.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 7.8 16.4 15.2 78.8 55.2 42.3 7.5 13.9 22.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 5.5 14.9 13.1 81.6 57.8 40.9 6.1 11.6 19.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 12.8 32.4 22.0 106.9 64.7 49.9 12.9 21.8 33.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 7.2 16.1 12.2 75.0 53.1 38.9 7.4 14.4 24.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------