***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.05.2017.-18.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 49.9 62.6 62.2 83.9 45.1 41.6 52.5 67.1 82.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 55.6 66.5 53.0 83.6 45.1 41.1 58.4 70.0 82.2 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 58.2 76.4 62.2 87.3 46.9 42.7 62.1 79.8 98.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 57.0 76.9 65.0 86.1 45.5 41.0 64.2 81.5 100.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 51.8 63.8 63.4 87.0 45.7 42.6 55.1 66.6 78.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 49.2 59.9 73.7 85.0 42.0 39.3 53.0 66.2 80.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 42.7 54.6 52.5 81.6 44.3 40.9 44.6 59.8 77.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 85.1 98.2 74.0 86.4 43.1 41.5 89.3 104.1 119.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 53.8 63.7 64.1 84.7 43.4 41.2 57.0 68.0 79.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 61.6 73.7 75.0 84.9 42.2 40.8 66.1 80.2 95.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 52.6 60.8 63.2 85.8 44.1 41.9 54.9 64.0 73.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 44.5 54.5 63.2 86.3 44.5 41.8 46.9 58.4 70.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 47.2 56.2 65.7 83.4 42.5 40.0 49.9 61.6 74.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 75.7 94.2 82.3 92.4 50.4 46.5 78.2 93.8 110.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 38.0 51.2 57.3 84.0 45.5 40.1 41.2 54.9 70.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 40.3 49.7 61.9 83.9 43.2 40.5 43.3 54.3 65.9 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 41.2 57.6 51.9 84.1 45.9 41.0 44.8 61.8 80.9 29 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 62.2 75.3 84.1 89.1 45.4 43.1 65.7 78.7 92.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 58.8 74.9 56.9 88.2 48.4 43.0 61.5 76.5 92.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 57.6 67.8 81.5 85.9 40.8 40.3 61.5 74.9 88.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 48.0 59.8 64.0 87.0 46.6 42.7 50.7 62.3 74.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 50.1 68.5 57.0 89.4 49.7 42.4 53.1 68.5 85.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 51.3 64.8 62.7 92.9 51.7 46.0 52.5 63.9 75.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 71.4 86.9 75.9 90.9 48.6 45.0 73.4 88.3 104.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 51.3 63.4 69.2 85.5 45.4 42.6 53.8 67.1 81.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 40.3 53.2 60.3 85.8 44.4 40.3 44.9 57.2 70.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 53.0 64.0 66.6 83.3 43.9 41.3 55.7 68.8 83.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 43.1 54.9 62.8 86.0 46.0 40.5 47.2 57.4 68.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 81.5 97.0 86.0 90.4 46.1 43.6 85.4 100.6 116.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 52.5 65.2 55.2 83.5 44.8 41.1 55.9 69.4 83.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------