***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.05.2016.-29.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 93 7 100 12.4 12.4 13.7 0.1 52.5 52.3 11.2 12.3 13.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 93 7 100 12.4 12.7 13.6 0.4 57.6 57.3 11.3 12.3 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 92 8 100 14.2 14.4 14.0 0.3 55.1 54.8 13.0 14.1 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 92 8 100 8.9 9.0 11.5 0.2 53.3 53.1 7.5 8.7 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 87 13 100 11.0 10.6 12.0 -0.1 47.1 47.2 9.8 10.8 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 9.8 8.9 9.0 -0.5 38.7 39.5 8.6 9.5 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 93 7 100 12.4 12.8 13.7 0.4 57.5 57.2 11.3 12.3 13.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 91 9 100 4.5 4.1 9.3 -0.2 45.8 45.9 3.3 4.4 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 90 10 100 11.8 11.3 12.0 -0.3 43.8 44.1 10.6 11.6 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 93 7 100 11.7 11.3 10.3 -0.2 45.3 45.5 10.5 11.5 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 87 13 100 11.6 10.9 11.4 -0.4 40.6 41.0 10.4 11.4 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 9.8 9.0 10.1 -0.4 41.1 41.5 8.5 9.5 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 9.7 9.9 10.0 -0.8 32.5 33.6 9.9 10.8 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 94 6 100 12.5 12.7 12.1 0.3 55.7 55.5 11.4 12.4 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 12.7 11.9 12.8 -0.5 39.1 39.6 11.5 12.5 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 12.2 11.1 10.7 -0.6 37.1 37.8 10.8 11.8 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 90 10 100 12.8 13.3 13.5 0.7 62.1 61.5 11.6 12.6 13.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 95 5 100 10.1 10.1 10.0 0.0 50.0 49.9 9.1 10.1 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 93 7 100 12.4 12.6 13.5 0.3 56.0 55.8 11.3 12.3 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 91 9 100 6.3 6.0 7.9 -0.1 48.6 48.5 5.1 6.1 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 92 8 100 11.8 11.5 13.4 -0.1 48.2 48.2 10.7 11.6 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 91 9 100 12.0 12.3 13.5 0.4 57.9 57.6 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 92 8 100 12.1 12.3 13.5 0.3 56.0 55.9 11.0 12.0 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 95 5 100 11.8 11.9 12.2 0.2 53.4 53.3 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 88 12 100 12.2 11.8 12.8 -0.1 47.3 47.4 11.0 12.0 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 9.2 9.6 9.2 -0.6 36.9 37.9 9.3 10.3 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 90 10 100 12.5 12.4 13.3 0.0 50.9 50.8 11.3 12.3 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 10.8 10.4 11.8 -0.2 45.7 45.9 9.7 10.6 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 93 7 100 8.8 8.5 9.1 -0.1 47.8 47.8 7.6 8.7 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 93 7 100 12.6 12.8 13.8 0.3 55.9 55.7 11.4 12.5 13.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------