***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.05.2016.-05.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 43 57 100 13.3 13.6 15.6 1.4 72.1 68.2 11.6 12.5 13.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 13.7 14.1 15.4 1.6 74.5 70.7 11.5 12.6 13.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 15.2 15.7 15.9 1.6 75.5 71.3 13.2 14.2 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 10.2 10.7 13.4 1.6 76.4 71.5 8.2 9.1 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 12.0 12.6 13.9 1.7 78.9 73.7 10.2 11.1 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 10.8 11.2 11.5 1.7 79.8 73.8 9.4 10.0 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 13.7 14.1 15.5 1.5 73.8 70.0 11.7 12.7 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 5.8 6.4 11.5 1.8 80.8 75.5 4.1 4.9 5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 13.0 13.5 14.1 1.7 79.5 74.7 11.5 12.2 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 12.9 13.5 12.5 1.8 80.9 75.7 11.4 12.1 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 12.6 13.1 13.5 1.7 79.2 74.5 11.0 11.7 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 11.0 11.4 12.3 1.7 79.2 74.1 9.3 10.1 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 12.3 12.7 12.2 1.6 79.2 73.6 10.7 11.4 12.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 13.8 14.5 14.0 1.9 81.6 76.5 11.9 12.8 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 13.9 14.1 14.9 1.3 73.9 69.8 12.4 13.1 13.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 13.0 13.6 12.9 1.7 79.1 73.7 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 13.9 14.4 15.4 1.7 77.2 73.0 12.0 12.9 13.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 11.7 12.5 12.0 1.9 82.2 76.6 10.0 10.8 11.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 13.5 14.0 15.5 1.6 75.4 71.4 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 7.5 8.2 9.9 1.9 82.6 76.4 6.1 6.7 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 13.0 13.5 15.4 1.7 77.8 72.9 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 13.2 13.7 15.4 1.7 77.7 73.7 11.4 12.2 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 13.3 13.9 15.5 1.8 78.1 73.6 11.2 12.2 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 13.1 13.8 14.0 1.9 81.0 76.1 11.4 12.2 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 13.1 13.4 14.6 1.4 72.2 67.7 11.3 12.2 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 11.8 12.4 11.8 1.8 82.4 75.4 10.2 10.9 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 13.4 13.7 15.1 1.4 71.5 67.4 11.2 12.3 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 11.8 12.3 13.9 1.6 78.3 73.0 10.4 11.0 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 10.2 11.0 11.2 1.9 81.9 76.5 8.2 9.1 10.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 43 57 100 13.7 14.1 15.6 1.5 73.2 69.6 11.8 12.7 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------