***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.06.2016.-19.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 14.8 14.4 16.4 -0.2 47.0 47.8 13.7 14.5 15.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 14.3 13.7 16.2 -0.2 46.8 47.3 12.9 13.9 14.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 16.1 15.4 16.6 -0.2 45.5 46.8 14.7 15.7 16.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 11.2 10.7 14.1 -0.1 48.3 49.5 9.6 10.8 11.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 13.2 12.7 14.2 -0.1 48.3 49.3 11.9 12.8 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 12.3 11.9 12.1 0.0 49.4 50.2 11.1 11.9 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 14.5 13.9 16.4 -0.2 46.7 47.2 13.2 14.1 15.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 6.8 6.4 12.0 0.0 49.8 50.5 5.3 6.4 7.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 14.2 13.8 14.4 -0.1 47.8 48.8 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 14.1 13.7 13.0 -0.1 48.7 49.7 12.9 13.8 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 14.2 13.8 13.6 -0.1 48.5 49.7 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 12.1 11.7 12.8 -0.1 48.9 49.8 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 13.7 13.3 12.2 -0.1 47.8 48.6 12.5 13.4 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 13.4 14.3 14.5 -0.1 48.4 49.1 13.5 14.4 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 15.3 14.9 15.4 -0.1 48.0 49.2 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 14.6 14.1 13.1 -0.1 48.7 49.6 13.2 14.1 15.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 14.8 14.3 16.1 -0.2 47.2 47.5 13.5 14.4 15.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 12.8 12.3 12.4 -0.1 48.9 49.7 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 14.4 13.8 16.2 -0.2 46.7 47.4 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 8.6 8.3 10.0 0.1 51.7 51.7 7.3 8.2 9.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 14.2 13.6 15.7 -0.2 46.5 47.6 12.9 13.8 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 14.0 13.5 15.9 -0.2 46.0 46.9 12.8 13.7 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 14.0 13.5 16.2 -0.1 47.7 48.4 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 14.3 13.7 14.2 -0.2 46.9 48.2 12.9 13.9 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 12.5 13.5 15.0 -0.1 48.1 48.7 12.7 13.6 14.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 13.1 12.9 12.1 0.1 52.3 51.7 12.0 12.8 13.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 13.9 13.4 15.8 -0.1 48.2 48.6 12.5 13.5 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 13.3 12.9 14.5 -0.1 47.6 48.8 12.1 13.0 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 11.0 10.5 11.7 0.0 49.6 50.2 9.4 10.5 11.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 14.6 14.0 16.4 -0.2 46.6 47.3 13.2 14.2 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------