***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.05.2016.-19.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 13.6 13.7 15.3 0.3 59.0 58.0 13.0 13.4 13.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 13.4 13.7 15.1 0.4 61.4 60.2 12.6 13.3 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 15.1 15.3 15.5 0.4 60.8 59.6 14.4 14.9 15.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 10.1 10.4 13.0 0.4 62.5 60.7 9.3 9.9 10.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 12.0 12.2 13.3 0.4 61.8 59.8 11.4 11.8 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 10.9 11.0 10.9 0.3 61.0 59.1 10.3 10.7 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 13.5 13.7 15.2 0.4 60.8 59.7 12.8 13.4 13.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 5.6 5.9 10.9 0.4 63.5 61.0 5.0 5.5 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 13.0 13.1 13.4 0.4 60.6 58.9 12.4 12.9 13.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 12.9 13.1 11.9 0.4 62.6 60.5 12.3 12.7 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 12.7 12.8 12.7 0.3 59.9 58.2 12.1 12.6 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 10.9 11.0 11.7 0.3 60.5 58.6 10.2 10.7 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 12.3 12.3 11.4 0.2 57.0 55.9 11.7 12.1 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 13.6 14.0 13.5 0.6 66.1 63.8 12.9 13.5 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 13.9 13.9 14.3 0.2 55.5 55.0 13.3 13.8 14.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 13.1 13.2 12.2 0.3 59.0 57.5 12.4 13.0 13.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 13.8 14.1 15.0 0.6 64.4 62.7 13.1 13.6 14.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 11.5 11.9 11.4 0.5 65.4 62.8 10.8 11.4 11.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 13.4 13.7 15.1 0.4 61.3 60.0 12.8 13.3 13.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 7.4 7.7 9.2 0.5 66.8 63.7 6.7 7.2 7.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 13.0 13.1 14.8 0.4 60.3 59.0 12.4 12.8 13.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 13.1 13.3 14.9 0.5 62.5 61.0 12.4 12.9 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 13.1 13.3 15.0 0.5 63.3 61.7 12.4 12.9 13.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 13.1 13.4 13.4 0.5 64.5 62.4 12.3 12.9 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 13.1 13.2 14.1 0.3 58.0 57.0 12.4 13.0 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 11.7 11.9 11.0 0.4 62.0 59.6 11.1 11.6 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 13.2 13.4 14.7 0.3 58.8 57.7 12.5 13.1 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 12.0 12.1 13.4 0.4 60.3 58.9 11.4 11.8 12.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 9.9 10.2 10.6 0.5 64.7 62.2 9.2 9.7 10.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 13.6 13.8 15.3 0.4 60.3 59.2 12.9 13.5 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------