***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.05.2016.-05.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 24.5 25.6 25.4 1.5 68.6 64.4 22.6 24.0 25.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 25.0 26.2 25.5 1.5 68.4 64.6 22.9 24.5 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 24.8 26.1 25.6 1.5 68.9 64.5 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 17.5 18.8 23.0 1.8 72.9 66.7 16.0 17.2 18.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 46 54 100 26.2 26.8 23.9 1.8 72.6 66.5 23.6 24.9 26.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 24.6 25.4 21.9 2.2 78.7 69.8 22.2 23.3 24.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 25.8 26.0 25.6 1.5 69.4 65.4 22.7 24.2 25.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 44 56 100 13.9 14.9 22.2 2.3 78.1 69.9 11.5 12.7 13.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 46 54 100 25.5 26.1 24.6 1.9 73.3 67.2 22.9 24.2 25.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 45 55 100 25.4 26.2 23.0 2.1 75.5 68.4 22.9 24.2 25.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 45 55 100 25.8 26.5 24.1 2.0 74.4 67.6 23.4 24.6 25.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 44 56 100 24.7 25.5 23.2 2.2 77.0 69.1 22.5 23.6 24.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 43 57 100 25.9 26.6 23.3 2.1 76.2 68.5 23.5 24.7 25.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 25.7 26.2 24.1 1.9 72.5 66.9 22.7 24.2 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 46 54 100 26.2 26.6 25.0 1.6 71.8 66.1 24.2 25.2 26.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 45 55 100 26.5 27.1 23.5 2.0 75.1 67.8 24.1 25.3 26.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 24.5 25.9 25.3 1.6 69.8 65.6 22.4 24.0 25.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 44 56 100 24.9 25.7 22.3 2.2 75.9 68.7 22.3 23.6 24.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 24.5 25.8 25.4 1.5 68.3 64.4 22.5 24.1 25.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 20.4 21.4 20.2 2.4 78.9 70.5 17.8 19.1 20.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 24.8 26.2 25.4 1.7 71.0 65.7 23.0 24.4 25.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 25.0 26.2 25.0 1.4 68.0 64.1 22.9 24.5 26.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 44 56 100 25.9 26.3 25.4 1.7 70.5 65.8 22.9 24.4 25.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 43 57 100 25.2 25.8 24.1 1.9 73.1 67.0 22.5 23.9 25.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 45 55 100 26.0 26.3 24.1 1.5 69.9 65.0 23.3 24.6 25.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 25.6 26.5 22.6 2.4 80.9 71.9 23.2 24.3 25.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 44 56 100 25.7 25.9 24.8 1.4 68.8 64.5 22.8 24.3 25.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 46 54 100 26.3 26.8 23.8 1.8 73.2 66.7 24.4 25.4 26.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 44 56 100 20.2 21.0 21.5 2.2 76.5 69.0 17.6 18.9 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 24.8 26.0 25.5 1.4 68.2 64.4 22.8 24.4 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------