***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.06.2016.-12.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 27.0 25.5 24.7 -0.6 42.0 43.1 24.5 26.3 28.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 26.7 25.5 24.7 -0.6 42.5 43.3 24.6 26.2 27.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 26.9 25.4 24.9 -0.6 41.6 43.0 24.5 26.2 27.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 19.7 18.4 22.6 -0.7 41.0 42.3 17.6 19.1 20.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 27.2 25.8 23.0 -0.6 41.9 43.4 24.9 26.6 28.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 25.6 24.7 20.8 -0.3 45.0 45.4 23.6 25.1 26.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 26.3 25.2 24.8 -0.5 43.3 43.9 24.2 25.8 27.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 14.9 14.0 21.3 -0.3 45.6 46.5 12.9 14.4 15.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 26.5 25.2 23.3 -0.5 42.6 44.2 24.2 25.9 27.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 26.4 25.2 22.0 -0.4 44.3 45.6 24.1 25.8 27.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 27.0 25.8 22.7 -0.5 43.0 44.4 24.8 26.4 27.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 25.8 24.7 22.3 -0.4 44.3 45.4 23.7 25.2 26.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 27.0 25.9 21.6 -0.4 44.1 45.1 24.9 26.4 27.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 26.7 25.3 22.9 -0.5 42.9 44.5 24.3 26.0 27.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 27.6 26.2 23.5 -0.8 39.8 41.0 25.7 27.0 28.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 27.6 26.4 22.3 -0.5 43.2 44.3 25.4 27.0 28.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 26.2 25.0 24.6 -0.5 43.6 44.1 23.9 25.6 27.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 25.8 24.7 21.4 -0.4 45.0 46.2 23.5 25.2 26.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 26.2 24.9 24.7 -0.6 41.8 42.9 24.0 25.7 27.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 21.2 20.4 19.1 -0.2 47.6 47.9 19.0 20.6 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 26.8 25.3 24.2 -0.6 41.6 43.2 24.4 26.1 27.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 26.7 25.2 24.3 -0.7 40.9 42.1 24.4 26.1 27.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 26.7 25.3 24.6 -0.6 42.2 43.5 24.3 26.0 27.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 26.2 24.9 22.9 -0.5 42.9 44.5 23.9 25.6 27.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 26.9 25.5 23.0 -0.6 41.7 42.9 24.7 26.3 27.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 26.6 25.8 21.8 -0.1 48.3 48.2 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 26.5 25.3 23.9 -0.6 42.2 43.3 24.4 26.0 27.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 27.6 26.2 22.8 -0.7 40.3 41.6 25.6 27.0 28.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 21.0 19.9 20.6 -0.3 45.5 46.5 18.6 20.3 22.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 26.5 25.3 24.7 -0.6 42.4 43.4 24.4 26.0 27.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------