***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.05.2016.-19.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 25.5 25.4 25.0 0.2 53.5 53.3 24.4 25.3 26.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 25.5 25.5 25.1 0.3 55.4 54.9 24.5 25.3 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 25.4 25.4 25.2 0.2 54.4 54.1 24.4 25.2 26.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 18.3 18.2 22.6 0.2 54.0 53.4 17.3 18.1 18.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 25.8 25.8 23.3 0.2 55.1 54.4 24.8 25.5 26.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 24.3 24.5 21.1 0.4 59.8 57.6 23.3 24.0 24.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 25.1 25.2 25.2 0.4 57.0 56.2 24.1 24.9 25.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 13.7 14.0 21.6 0.6 63.0 60.1 12.7 13.5 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 25.2 25.3 23.9 0.4 57.7 56.6 24.1 24.9 25.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 25.1 25.3 22.4 0.5 61.6 59.4 24.1 24.8 25.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 25.5 25.6 23.3 0.4 58.0 56.6 24.5 25.3 26.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 24.5 24.6 22.5 0.4 59.7 57.6 23.5 24.2 24.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 25.6 25.7 22.3 0.4 57.9 56.3 24.6 25.4 26.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 25.3 25.5 23.6 0.5 60.9 59.3 24.2 25.0 25.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 26.2 26.0 24.2 0.1 51.7 51.4 25.3 26.0 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 26.2 26.2 22.8 0.3 56.8 55.5 25.2 25.9 26.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 24.9 25.1 25.0 0.4 58.4 57.4 23.8 24.7 25.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 24.6 24.9 21.8 0.6 64.0 61.3 23.6 24.3 25.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 25.0 25.0 25.1 0.3 55.0 54.5 24.0 24.8 25.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 20.0 20.5 19.5 0.7 65.5 61.7 18.9 19.7 20.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 25.4 25.4 24.8 0.2 54.8 54.3 24.3 25.1 25.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 25.4 25.4 24.7 0.3 55.3 54.7 24.3 25.1 26.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 25.4 25.5 25.0 0.4 57.7 56.8 24.3 25.1 25.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 24.8 25.0 23.6 0.5 60.7 59.1 23.8 24.6 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 25.6 25.4 23.5 0.1 52.8 52.7 24.5 25.3 26.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 25.1 25.4 21.9 0.5 62.1 59.3 24.2 24.9 25.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 25.2 25.1 24.3 0.2 53.3 53.2 24.1 24.9 25.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 26.2 26.1 23.2 0.2 53.3 52.7 25.3 26.0 26.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 19.8 20.2 21.0 0.7 64.5 61.5 18.7 19.5 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 25.3 25.3 25.1 0.2 54.8 54.4 24.3 25.1 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------