***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.05.2016.-29.05.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 11.9 14.7 24.1 152.3 78.5 68.6 3.6 6.3 10.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 10.8 14.6 16.4 110.9 67.1 58.2 4.4 8.4 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 8.9 11.5 17.7 107.8 65.6 58.2 4.0 7.2 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 12.4 14.2 19.0 101.0 61.6 54.7 5.2 9.8 16.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 10.9 14.4 21.5 115.6 67.7 59.5 5.3 9.0 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 12.9 12.6 22.3 91.7 55.5 49.5 5.9 10.7 17.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 8.9 12.5 17.0 117.1 68.9 58.8 3.2 6.5 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 25.7 20.0 20.5 75.4 47.5 42.5 13.3 21.3 31.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 10.3 12.2 19.6 106.0 63.9 55.5 4.6 8.2 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 14.4 13.1 21.3 84.6 53.5 47.1 7.1 11.9 18.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 12.0 12.9 19.5 93.5 59.2 52.1 6.0 10.1 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 12.8 11.3 18.3 84.6 53.3 48.3 5.6 10.2 16.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 12.0 16.5 27.0 113.4 66.9 57.6 4.6 9.3 16.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 14.8 13.9 18.9 85.5 55.4 49.5 6.9 11.9 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 10.7 11.8 14.6 89.9 59.7 52.2 4.3 8.5 14.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 11.8 13.9 21.0 101.7 62.4 55.1 6.3 10.2 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 8.7 10.6 14.8 103.9 64.6 56.0 3.2 6.4 11.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 14.5 10.6 19.3 74.7 46.3 42.2 7.3 11.7 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 8.5 10.3 15.3 100.8 63.3 55.4 3.7 6.8 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 7.3 9.4 19.6 64.9 40.6 36.3 7.5 12.1 18.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 8.1 11.7 20.1 121.2 69.5 60.4 3.4 6.3 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 12.3 14.6 14.3 99.3 63.2 55.6 5.2 9.8 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 7.6 7.2 13.3 81.3 55.5 49.7 3.3 6.1 9.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 13.3 11.5 16.7 80.4 51.4 46.5 6.7 11.1 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 11.9 14.2 27.0 148.0 77.3 68.4 3.9 6.7 10.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 12.5 10.9 17.6 82.1 53.7 48.6 5.2 9.7 15.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 12.9 15.7 25.2 148.4 77.4 68.2 3.4 6.6 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 10.9 12.2 17.7 94.2 59.7 52.1 5.3 9.3 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 23.4 17.1 18.4 68.4 42.6 39.0 13.8 19.9 27.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 7.9 10.6 17.3 112.3 67.3 58.7 3.0 5.9 10.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------