***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.05.2016.-05.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 8.0 18.1 18.0 95.0 60.2 48.5 8.0 13.6 21.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 7.1 16.3 16.1 95.7 61.1 47.3 6.6 11.8 18.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 21.5 22.7 19.0 96.8 60.9 49.1 9.6 16.6 26.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 10.5 19.9 17.4 81.0 55.7 45.5 10.1 17.2 25.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 7.6 12.7 16.1 75.0 51.3 41.4 7.9 12.3 17.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 14.8 11.1 17.2 71.9 47.2 41.8 7.4 12.0 17.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 5.7 15.9 17.2 101.5 63.0 48.2 4.9 10.1 17.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 15.5 22.7 17.2 76.5 51.4 43.0 15.7 22.1 29.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 8.5 14.2 17.4 77.0 51.9 42.8 8.7 13.6 19.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 8.6 13.4 17.8 75.8 51.6 43.3 8.6 12.9 18.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 7.2 11.8 17.8 79.6 52.6 44.3 7.0 11.1 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 14.0 11.6 16.6 76.8 50.8 43.1 7.1 11.3 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 5.9 9.4 15.4 71.2 48.2 41.1 5.7 10.0 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 26.3 25.4 21.5 89.2 58.3 47.0 10.8 19.8 31.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 5.6 11.5 15.5 78.1 53.5 43.5 5.1 10.2 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 12.6 10.3 16.7 76.1 51.5 44.2 5.6 9.9 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 8.3 19.5 15.2 98.8 62.3 48.5 7.7 13.7 21.7 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 11.6 18.8 19.8 79.5 53.4 45.2 11.3 17.4 24.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 18.9 19.2 16.8 93.7 60.3 46.9 6.5 13.3 23.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 8.6 13.0 16.6 72.0 48.4 40.7 8.8 13.6 19.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 8.9 15.5 17.5 82.9 54.5 44.5 9.0 14.0 20.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 7.1 20.8 16.8 99.3 62.8 47.7 6.3 13.2 23.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 17.8 17.4 18.1 90.9 58.6 46.9 7.3 13.4 21.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 10.2 19.4 20.0 84.6 55.8 46.5 9.8 16.5 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 8.2 15.8 18.6 84.2 55.5 45.4 7.5 13.5 21.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 3.5 5.4 13.1 59.8 41.1 34.7 3.8 7.5 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 16.0 16.6 20.1 97.4 60.6 49.5 7.0 12.3 19.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 6.7 11.7 15.5 75.0 52.4 43.0 6.4 10.9 16.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 13.5 20.2 19.7 78.2 51.7 43.8 13.8 19.6 26.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 7.3 18.3 18.0 102.6 63.3 48.5 7.0 12.4 19.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------