***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.06.2016.-12.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 18.8 26.4 20.3 117.2 69.2 56.5 6.8 13.7 23.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 8.2 24.3 18.0 111.6 67.6 54.8 7.7 14.2 23.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 18.6 26.8 20.9 122.7 70.5 57.7 7.5 14.1 23.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 25.8 28.2 22.4 131.3 73.1 59.9 8.0 14.4 23.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 17.2 25.9 21.3 130.5 72.8 60.1 7.8 13.6 21.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 18.8 25.3 23.7 116.7 68.8 58.0 8.3 14.8 23.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 8.2 23.1 17.8 116.7 69.0 55.5 7.4 13.4 21.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 22.0 31.4 21.4 123.1 70.9 58.6 10.6 18.0 27.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 17.0 25.2 21.9 125.4 71.4 59.8 7.3 13.3 21.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 17.8 26.6 23.3 121.0 70.2 58.8 6.7 13.5 23.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 14.3 21.8 18.6 126.6 71.8 58.1 5.6 10.8 18.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 13.4 21.5 19.7 127.4 72.1 59.2 4.9 10.0 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 16.1 24.4 21.2 122.6 70.8 59.0 6.1 12.1 20.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 20.1 27.7 27.2 119.1 69.6 59.7 9.5 16.2 25.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 12.3 20.1 19.7 128.3 72.6 58.0 4.0 8.7 15.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 13.1 20.5 20.3 126.5 71.9 59.8 5.1 9.9 16.9 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 7.8 24.1 16.7 108.0 66.0 54.1 7.1 14.1 24.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 17.7 24.4 26.8 123.8 71.0 61.1 9.8 15.1 21.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 20.0 25.1 18.8 109.3 66.9 55.2 7.9 14.7 24.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 17.9 25.1 23.0 117.8 69.3 58.5 7.2 13.6 22.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 16.1 24.3 21.7 126.4 72.0 59.6 6.5 12.3 20.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 18.6 21.9 17.9 103.5 64.9 54.4 9.1 15.0 22.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 16.0 20.1 20.0 109.7 66.8 55.9 6.8 12.2 19.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 18.5 27.9 25.3 124.7 71.2 61.2 8.4 14.9 23.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 6.2 21.6 22.5 113.5 68.0 56.2 5.4 11.2 20.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 14.1 22.0 18.2 127.5 72.2 57.1 4.7 9.8 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 16.7 23.5 22.0 116.0 68.9 57.4 5.6 11.8 21.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 11.6 18.5 21.3 130.4 72.9 58.9 4.3 8.6 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 20.6 32.7 26.7 128.5 72.3 62.2 8.7 16.3 26.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 10.1 27.8 18.7 116.1 68.9 55.5 9.4 16.4 25.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------