***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.06.2016.-19.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 5.5 28.7 17.1 154.8 78.4 53.9 5.3 10.7 18.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 6.2 26.4 14.7 129.4 73.1 52.7 5.7 11.9 20.7 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 7.9 44.5 17.0 149.2 77.4 52.2 6.8 15.5 28.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 6.5 37.8 13.7 147.3 76.9 51.6 5.7 13.0 24.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 5.5 27.0 14.1 142.6 75.7 49.5 5.1 10.8 19.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 5.9 17.8 13.0 97.4 63.2 42.8 6.2 11.8 19.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 5.4 25.9 15.4 140.2 75.4 54.8 4.9 10.3 18.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 10.9 28.7 14.1 104.4 65.6 44.3 11.2 19.0 28.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 7.0 27.8 15.3 128.3 72.8 48.9 6.6 13.2 22.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 10.6 33.6 16.8 118.0 69.8 47.1 10.2 18.5 30.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 6.6 23.2 11.9 122.4 71.0 46.0 7.0 12.6 20.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 3.9 13.5 11.4 100.0 64.6 42.6 4.1 8.2 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 5.0 16.8 13.0 102.0 65.6 41.5 5.1 9.9 17.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 9.2 31.6 19.1 117.7 70.0 51.3 8.6 16.4 27.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 4.2 22.9 11.1 161.2 79.4 50.4 3.9 8.1 14.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 4.0 13.8 12.1 114.7 69.0 44.1 4.2 7.8 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 5.6 18.2 13.2 113.1 69.1 51.2 4.9 9.7 16.3 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 8.6 27.5 20.3 118.1 69.9 47.3 8.1 15.0 24.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 6.9 28.9 15.1 129.7 73.1 51.9 6.5 13.2 22.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 7.9 23.1 17.1 106.8 65.7 44.1 8.1 14.6 23.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 6.3 25.2 15.1 136.3 74.7 50.2 6.5 12.0 19.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 5.7 15.8 12.9 99.6 65.4 48.4 5.3 9.8 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 5.4 24.4 16.0 132.4 73.8 50.8 5.2 10.7 18.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 12.3 41.0 18.5 126.5 72.1 49.6 11.9 21.4 34.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 6.7 32.4 16.6 143.7 76.2 54.4 6.3 13.0 22.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 4.5 16.8 9.6 94.8 63.4 39.3 4.9 10.2 18.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 7.7 33.1 18.0 150.5 77.6 55.8 7.5 13.8 22.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 5.9 25.1 12.2 141.2 75.5 49.5 5.6 10.9 18.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 13.0 34.7 19.5 112.7 68.2 46.0 13.4 22.0 32.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 5.5 31.7 16.1 148.6 77.1 53.6 5.2 11.5 20.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------