***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.05.2016.-19.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 86.4 92.2 79.5 125.9 73.8 64.2 43.8 60.8 80.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 75.8 80.5 65.2 110.3 64.2 55.8 58.3 69.8 82.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 87.8 101.9 74.6 115.5 67.6 58.6 57.8 77.2 99.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 87.6 94.6 72.6 108.7 63.1 55.0 63.1 79.6 98.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 68.8 73.7 73.0 110.1 63.8 56.3 52.4 63.7 75.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 52.6 67.0 76.2 93.3 49.9 46.5 53.9 67.3 81.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 67.2 79.4 67.4 116.8 68.6 58.6 43.8 59.0 76.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 85.6 100.8 73.2 91.2 48.2 44.7 87.7 102.5 117.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 73.0 75.9 74.3 105.3 60.6 53.8 56.6 68.0 80.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 63.7 81.2 79.2 96.3 52.7 47.6 64.8 78.9 94.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 66.6 66.0 67.8 100.1 56.1 50.4 53.7 62.5 72.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 63.6 58.7 65.9 94.2 51.6 47.4 46.4 57.6 69.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 68.3 68.5 76.6 101.4 57.9 52.0 50.5 62.5 75.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 100.0 100.1 86.7 101.6 58.1 52.2 76.6 92.3 108.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 40.7 65.0 60.9 104.4 60.7 51.9 41.2 54.9 70.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 57.4 57.5 70.1 101.4 57.8 51.5 41.5 52.4 63.8 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 42.8 73.6 60.0 105.4 60.8 52.2 43.7 60.8 80.6 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 61.8 79.3 86.2 96.4 53.2 47.9 64.4 76.9 90.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 81.1 85.2 66.1 106.5 61.8 54.1 58.7 73.7 90.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 55.7 66.6 76.4 86.3 42.8 41.0 59.0 72.1 86.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 66.1 73.9 74.4 112.7 65.7 57.6 48.3 60.8 74.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 75.5 74.7 61.9 100.5 57.6 50.9 52.0 67.4 84.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 67.8 68.6 67.4 101.2 58.4 51.7 50.3 62.3 75.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 71.6 95.5 80.5 101.2 57.5 51.3 72.9 88.1 104.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 72.9 85.4 84.6 118.1 69.1 61.2 51.9 66.5 81.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 43.8 54.2 58.4 86.3 46.0 44.1 44.3 57.6 71.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 84.1 88.8 85.4 124.3 72.9 63.7 51.9 65.7 81.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 63.0 64.2 66.7 103.7 59.8 51.6 47.1 57.5 68.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 80.3 99.0 84.3 93.6 50.5 46.1 84.1 98.6 113.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 75.1 85.4 70.1 117.0 68.5 59.2 54.9 68.5 83.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------