***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.05.2021.-30.05.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 12.6 13.3 14.8 0.8 64.7 62.8 11.3 12.4 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 12.7 12.2 13.6 -0.2 45.7 46.1 11.4 12.4 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 14.4 14.8 14.7 0.6 61.0 59.6 13.1 14.2 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 10.2 10.6 12.9 1.4 74.3 71.4 7.6 8.8 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 11.9 12.3 13.5 1.3 73.8 71.1 9.9 10.9 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 8 92 100 11.0 11.9 11.6 2.2 87.8 84.0 8.6 9.5 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 12.7 12.2 13.6 -0.2 47.3 47.5 11.4 12.4 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 11 89 100 6.2 7.0 11.3 1.8 84.2 80.5 3.3 4.5 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 12.9 13.2 13.7 1.3 75.2 72.4 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 18 82 100 13.0 13.5 12.0 1.6 80.3 77.0 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 15 85 100 12.8 13.4 13.6 1.7 82.2 79.0 10.4 11.4 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 11 89 100 11.1 11.9 12.5 2.0 85.3 81.6 8.7 9.6 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 15 85 100 12.1 12.6 12.6 1.7 82.2 78.7 9.9 10.8 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 12.7 13.3 12.7 0.8 64.6 62.8 11.5 12.5 13.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 12 88 100 14.0 14.6 15.2 1.9 82.6 79.5 11.6 12.5 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 17 83 100 13.2 13.7 13.1 1.7 81.4 78.2 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 13.1 11.8 12.8 -0.8 36.6 37.7 11.6 12.7 13.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 23 77 100 11.4 11.8 11.3 1.5 78.4 75.0 9.2 10.1 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 12.6 12.3 13.7 -0.1 47.8 48.0 11.4 12.4 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 11 89 100 7.7 8.5 9.9 2.0 84.7 80.9 5.2 6.2 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 12.8 13.1 14.7 1.2 73.3 70.6 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 12.4 11.1 12.9 -0.8 35.4 36.7 11.0 12.0 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 12.2 12.2 13.9 0.2 53.0 52.7 11.1 12.1 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 44 56 100 12.7 12.8 12.9 1.0 68.5 66.3 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 13.1 13.3 14.3 1.2 70.2 67.6 11.0 12.0 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 7 93 100 11.8 12.9 12.0 2.3 88.8 85.2 9.4 10.3 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 45 55 100 13.3 13.4 14.5 1.0 66.6 64.4 11.3 12.3 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 17 83 100 12.0 12.5 13.9 1.8 81.1 78.0 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 10.3 10.8 10.6 1.6 79.7 76.2 7.7 8.8 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 12.8 12.6 14.1 0.1 51.5 51.4 11.5 12.6 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------