***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.05.2021.-06.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 11.6 12.3 14.7 -0.3 44.2 46.7 11.8 12.6 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 11.3 11.9 14.1 -0.8 34.7 40.0 11.8 12.8 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 13.0 14.0 14.8 -0.3 43.8 46.4 13.3 14.4 15.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 8.2 9.4 12.4 0.0 50.2 50.9 8.4 9.4 10.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 10.2 11.3 12.9 0.0 51.0 51.3 10.4 11.2 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.5 10.6 10.7 0.5 60.3 57.3 9.6 10.3 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 11.6 12.1 14.1 -0.8 34.9 40.2 12.0 12.9 13.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 5.3 5.4 10.6 0.3 57.7 55.4 4.2 5.0 5.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 11.4 12.4 13.0 0.0 50.9 50.9 11.6 12.3 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 11.4 12.4 11.4 0.2 54.1 53.0 11.5 12.3 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 11.0 12.2 12.6 0.3 55.7 54.2 11.2 11.9 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.5 10.6 11.7 0.4 58.9 56.3 9.5 10.2 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 10.7 11.9 11.4 0.3 57.3 55.0 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 11.8 12.9 12.8 0.0 49.3 50.2 12.0 12.9 13.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 13.6 13.4 14.3 0.2 54.7 53.5 12.5 13.2 13.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 11.4 12.6 12.1 0.2 55.2 54.0 11.6 12.3 13.1 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 11.9 12.2 13.8 -0.9 33.5 38.9 12.2 13.1 14.0 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 9.9 11.2 10.7 0.2 55.6 53.9 10.1 11.0 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 11.5 12.1 14.3 -0.7 36.4 41.3 11.9 12.8 13.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 7.1 7.2 8.9 0.4 60.0 56.5 6.2 6.8 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 11.3 12.3 14.2 0.0 49.5 50.1 11.5 12.3 13.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 11.2 11.6 13.9 -0.8 34.7 39.9 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 11.1 11.8 14.4 -0.5 40.2 44.1 11.4 12.4 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 11.2 12.3 12.7 0.0 50.7 51.0 11.5 12.3 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 11.3 12.3 13.7 -0.1 47.9 49.1 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 10.3 11.4 10.8 0.4 58.4 55.5 10.4 11.1 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 11.2 12.2 14.1 -0.3 44.6 47.0 11.5 12.6 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 11.5 11.4 13.1 0.2 54.2 53.3 10.5 11.2 11.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 8.3 9.8 10.2 0.4 58.4 55.5 8.5 9.3 10.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 11.6 12.3 14.4 -0.7 37.0 41.7 12.0 13.0 13.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------